How to replace a fantasy star

             So instead of doing a player analysis today, I thought I’d write about something else. All of this might be more relevant to head to head leagues than roto leagues. Seeing the potential season ending injury to Andrew Bogut, what do you if a big stat guy on your team sustains a long term injury? The first question is do you hold on to him. What you shouldn’t do is immediately drop him. Sometimes the initial prognosis is incorrect and they may be back sooner than expected. So how long is too long to hold onto a player? In the end, if your team is capable of making your fantasy playoffs without the player, and the player will be back before the playoffs start (at least a few weeks before), you should hold onto him. As long as you make the playoffs, your standing during the regular season does not matter. But with our luck rare is the case that a player is back before the fantasy playoffs. Last season I lost both Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler, both were big losses to my team, considering they were averaging a combined 33 points, 11 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2 steals and 2.5 3’s a game. Those are hard stats to find on the waiver wire in a 14 team league. But I still made the playoffs as a middle seed, and pushed it into the semis and just barely lost out on getting to the finals.

So how did I replace these guys? A little bit of luck and a lot of research on players. I held onto both of them until I was 100% sure they would be out the rest of the fantasy season. It’s better to lose a week in head to head than it is to drop one of your big performers.  The first thing I realized is that, players on the waiver wire usually only contribute one or two stats MAX. Out of those 5 stats I needed to replace, I found that rebounds, 3’s and steals were the ones I wanted the most. So I ignored player point production. Points are ‘biggest stat’ numerical wise which makes 1 point less important than 1 steal or 1 3-pointer. With the waiver wire being extremely thin, I initially picked up Belinelli. He was playing extremely well at the time and averaging almost 2 3pointers a game. The second player I picked up was Dejuan Blair, who I was very fortunate to find on the waiver wire. He had been having a down couple of weeks and I guess the owner got frustrated with the inconsistency and dropped him. He ended up picking up his game and gave me steals and rebounds. While I wasn’t able to completely fill up the stats I needed to replace, I came as close as I could from the waiver wire. With a combined 18 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.7 3’s, and 1.7 steals a game, I came extremely close to replacing every stat except points. If you are not as fortunate to find players like these on the waiver wire, the other option is to try to solidify stats that you usually win, or increase a stat you barely lose. If you need to solidify your rebounding and a player like Reggie Evans is on the waiver wire, you pick him up even though he only gives you rebounds. He also doesn’t turn the ball over, doesn’t shoot much or take a lot of free throws which makes him an only positive stat player. This will insure you never lose rebounding again and could be the difference in winning the rebounding category, and potentially turnovers as well.  I know this was a long article but replacing star players is not an easy thing to do and I hope this helps.

Houston's Small Forward problem

Chase Budinger was supposed to be the started this year. But in the NBA when you start off cold from the field, average 2 rebounds a game, and aren’t a great defender, you tend to lose your spot. Not only did he lose his spot, he also fell out of the rotation entirely for a few games. Chandler Parsons took over the starting spot after 7 games and while he hasn’t been a great scorer he has averaged 5.3 rebounds a game, 1.3 steals a game and 0.6 blocks a game to go with 6.7 points a game on 43% shooting. While these numbers are not great for fantasy, the steals and rebounds and help if you are in need of a small forward. Occasionally Parsons will also go off for double digit points but I wouldn’t count on it.

Budinger for the last two games has been back in the rotation. He has been much  more aggressive on offense than he was at the start of the season. He has put up an average of 20 points in the 2 games on over 50% shooting. He has also gone 6 of 10 on his 3-point attempts in the 2 games combined. However, his rebounding numbers are still very inconsistent. While he gives you hope that he can be a good rebounder, grabbing 8 rebounds in the first of these two games back in the rotation, he only grabbed 2 rebounds in the second game.  This season he has grabbed 5 or more rebounds in only 5 of his 17 games. These are not promising stats for anyone who wants to pick him up. On the upside though, he does hit 1.3 3-pointers a game, and is at 1.2 for his 3 year career, so this number will stay intact. While he can give you the occasional offensive outburst, Budinger is also only averaging 8.6 points a game for the year and 9.3 for his career, and has not averaged higher than 9.8 points a game.

I would recommend picking up Parsons over Budinger. The first reason is that Parsons is the starter and will usually get 25+ minutes a game, while Budinger is coming off the bench and his minutes could be inconsistent. Secondly if Budinger has a bad shooting game, he has no other stats you can rely on. With Parsons he can still give you rebounds and steals if he doesn’t score, and he usually doesn’t score. So what you’re left with is rebounds and steals vs 3’s. I’d take rebounds and steals.

Andrew Bogut's replacements

Let me tell you now, PICK UP DREW GOODEN OR ERSAN ILYASOVA. Andrew Bogut fractured his left ankle in yesterday’s game against Houston and is out INDEFINITELY. Leg injuries are always tough to deal with, but for a 7-footer it’s even more difficult. Due to their size, the pressure put on their legs is more than most other basketball players, see Yao Ming. He could potentially be out for the rest of the season, although nothing has been announced yet, but will definitely be out for at least a few months.

Let’s start with Gooden.  In his 10^th year in the NBA, Gooden has played for 9 teams, and produced for each of these teams. With career averages of27 minutes a game, 12 points, 8 rebounds, on 47% shooting from the field, and 75% from the line, Gooden can fill any gap at forward or center you have without any real downside. As a backup in Milwaukee he was being given 19 minutes a game this year and averaging 8.5 points a game and 5.2 rebounds a game, so chances are that he is probably hiding on the waiver wire somewhere waiting to be picked up. In 24.5 minutes a game as a Buck last year, he averaged 11.3 points, 7 rebounds, on 43% shooting from the field and 80% from the line. Expect numbers close to these again.

On the other side we have Ilyasova, who is a much younger, higher potential player. He is currently in his 4^th year in the NBA and is averaging 7.8 points and 7.4 rebounds in 22 minutes a game. He is currently only shooting 40.7% from the field, however, and as a big man you’d like to see closer to 50%. But considering he has never shot higher than 44.3% in his career, this 50% mark is highly unlikely. Due to Bogut’s injury, Ilyasova played 28 minutes, scored 7 points and collected a ridiculous 19 rebounds. Expect to see a decent increase in both his scoring and rebounding.

The best bet is to go with Ilyasova since he has been seeing more minutes than Gooden this season, but there is no way to tell what the Bucks will do. While they both saw 28 minutes each in the game last night, Bogut also played 9.5 minutes before his injury which means there is still time to go around. It will be interesting to see how the Bucks distribute the minutes, but expect both of these players to get at least around 25 minutes a game. This should be enough for both of them to be valuable fantasy players.

Speights and Bass

After being traded to Memphis, Marreese Speights was pushed into the starting lineup as an emergency replacement for Zach Randolph. Being given time to play is one of the all important factors in becoming a relevant fantasy player, and so let’s go over the stats. He is currently averaging 8.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, shooting 88% from the free throw line and 41% from the field. First off, his career free throw percentage is only 76%. Due to the small sample size (17 taken, 15 made), we know he will probably regress back down in this category. The interesting fact though is that he is under his career field goal percent, 48.6%, by over 7%. A lot of this is probably due to being in a new system. Once he finds his place, his field goal percentage should jump back up. But even then 9-10 points and 6 rebounds a game is good, but I’m still not convinced. He is only getting 22 minutes a game, which really limits his upside. What he is doing in those 22 minutes is pretty impressive but, the biggest reason I would stay away from him is because he is only a SHORT TERM fix for any fantasy team. Zach Randolph is out until March and when March comes around, Speights gets pushed back to the bench and loses a good chunk of his minutes. So unless you are in need of a short term fix, stay away from Speights

Brandon Bass on the other hand has shown he can play and is not a short term fix. The nice thing to see with Bass is that he is consistently getting playing time. This season he hasn’t play less than 22 minutes in a game, and is currently averaging 12 points, 6.5 rebounds on 49% shooting from the field and 75% from the free throw line. The fact that he is playing a career high in minutes, and has responded with career highs in points and rebounds, while keeping his turnovers down and still playing with efficiency, is a great indicator for potential (fantasy) success. His free throw shooting should go back up to his career average of 82%. Even if it doesn’t, 75% shouldn’t hurt your team enough to deter you from picking him up.  In 16 games this season he has only failed to score in double digits 4 times and has failed to get more than 4 rebounds only twice. This shows a great consistency which means you can rely on him for 10 points and 4 rebounds EVERY game, which means that you will never be disappointed with him as a waiver wire pickup.

Point Guards: Davis and Chalmers

Mario Chalmers has definitely stepped up his game from past seasons. He is shooting a career high 50.7%, including 43.8% from 3point land, and averaging a career high 11.7 points. To add to this, he is also averaging 4.4 assists, 2.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.9 3’s a game. For a waiver wire pickup, I don’t think you can complain with these stats. The only downside is that he is also averaging a career high 2.5 turnovers a game, which is a bit costly. If you can absorb his turnovers, he can definitely be an asset to your team.  The only question is can he continue this through the season? His career stats, and logical basketball, say otherwise. Even Ray Allen is a career 40% 3 point shooter, and only eclipsed the 44% mark once in his career, which was last year. But then again, Allen didn’t have Wade and Lebron to drag the attention away from him and give him open shots. If Chalmers can keep his 3 point percentage around the 40% mark, along with keeping his other stats, he would be worthy of a spot on your roster.

Is it worth it to pick up Baron Davis? Is he going to be able to even play basketball at a high level? Currently the Knicks are in dire need of a point guard. And with Davis’s passing ability he could definitely help them. This means that when he does come back, he will get the minutes to be productive. Except for his rookie year, he has never averaged fewer than 6 assists a game and 13 points a game. Between the Clippers and Cavs last year he averaged 1.4 3’s a game 6.7 assists, 1.35 steals, 2.7 rebounds, and 13.1 points a game. When on the Cavs even in 25 minutes a game he averaged 13 points, 6 assists, 1 steal, and 2.4 3’s a game. Don’t expect to get 2.4 3’s a game, but if he comes back and can play 25 minutes a game, he will give you at least 13 points, 6 assists, 1 steal and 1 3 pointer a game. The only variable in this situation is his health. While he seems to be working very hard to get back to full strength, his health and conditioning have always been issues throughout his career. However, he never let this stop him before so I don’t see why he would let it stop him now.

Biedrins...

Andris Biedrins is in an interesting situation. After having a great back to back to back seasons from 2006-2009, in 09-10 he apparently he had his confidence plummet due to his 16% free throw shooting and hasn’t been the same since. A lot of this is due to the fact that he hasn’t really been given much of a chance since that fateful season. In the three seasons where he played well, from oldest to most recent he was being 29, 27, and 30 minutes a game respectively. In these three seasons he had a combined average of 10.5 points, 10 rebounds, 1.5 blocks on 60.2% shooting. The only downside was that he was shooting free throws at 56.5%, and has never had a ft% higher than 62%. Regardless, these are numbers that any center would love to have, and are also amazing for any fantasy team.  So what happened? Well after that confidence problem, Don Nelson basically dropped him from the team. He lost a lot of playing time and in the season of his confidence loss and the year after, he averaged about 23.5 minutes a game. He still put up decent numbers, about 5 points, 7.5 boards, a blocked shot and 55% shooting from the field, which still made him somewhat valuable in deep leagues. The fact that he rarely got to the line made it easier to take his horrible free throw shooting. But this past year his playing time has dropped down to 17 minutes a game. He is averaging 3.4 points, 5.2 rebounds on 71% shooting, but is only taking 2.4 shots a game. He lost his starting job to Kwame Brown, and even then Kwame is getting around 20 minutes a game. It seems like Mark Jackson can’t really decide on a center, or just dislikes both of them. Or he likes different aspects of each player’s game. Regardless, stay away from Biedrins. Even with Brown out, Biedrins isn’t playing much more than 20 minutes a game and is averaging 1.85 shots a game and 3 rebounds a game. So unless you really need blocks, and even then he’s only averaging about 1 a game, stay away from Biedrins. Kwame is a story for another time…

Should the Lakers consider Arenas?

While listening to ESPN radio today, a caller said that the Lakers should consider picking up Gilbert Arenas. The hosts laughed him off the air and said it was a horrible idea. I completely disagree with them. The Lakers are lacking in the point guard position. Steve Blake is out until mid Feb. and while he was playing better than he did last year, he still hasn't really made an impact on the team. Fisher is getting old and while he can still hit those clutch shots, he has become more of a liability, especially on defense. Morris is still young and very raw. If Arenas would consider a one year low pay deal, what do the Lakers have to lose? Yes, he could go back to his chucking ways and launch way too many shots, but with a team friendly contract, Lakers can always cut him if he doesn't work out. He may not be great at defense but at least his size can create some sort of problems for the opposing point guards. Offensively, he could always score, which is something the Lakers haven't had at the point guard position in a long time, a lot of this is due to the triangle offense. But with the triangle being abandoned maybe its time for the Lakers to find a point guard who can create. Who knows if he still has anything left in him, but it's worth a shot. Sitting at 10-8 and not playing particularly well, the Lakers need to do something and it's not like their point guard play could really get much worse. Best case scenario, Arenas could be the one to put them back on top. Worst case scenario, the Lakers would lose a couple million on him. All of this may be a bit premature, the Lakers could figure out their offensive system and everything could be merry once again in Laker Land. But if it doesn't work out, a player like Arenas with a low risk high reward type contract could help.

Thompson, Thompson and Robinson

Given the playing time, Jason Thompson could be a valuable fantasy asset. 2 years ago he was given 31 minutes of playing time and averaged 12.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, shot 47% and had 1 blocked shot a game. Since then his playing time has been significantly cut. Last year it was down to 23 minutes a game and he averaged 8.8 points, 6 rebounds, 50% from the field and 0.6 blocks a game. This year his time was cut even more, down to 19 minutes a game. But with the injury to Chuck Hayes and the inefficient, inconsistent play of Hickson, Thompson has been moved back to the starting line-up for the last 3 games. In those games he has averaged 8.7 points and 8.7 rebounds a game, while being given about 27 minutes a game.  He is shooting over 50% for the season and has blocked a shot in 2 of his 3 starts. He is definitely worth of a spot on your team at this moment, but once Hayes come back, which has been reported to be Wednesday the 25^th of Jan, Thompson will most likely lose his spot. Seeing as Thompson has pushed his way past Hickson in the depth chart, he could still be given 20-25 minutes a game once Hayes returns, and could potentially still produce.

With the injury to Curry, Nate Robinson had been given significant playing time and had produced. He is still the scorer he was before in NY, but has added a new facet to his game that only significantly showed up in one of his previous seasons. What makes him more valuable this year is the fact that he is currently averaging 5 assists a game. He is also averaging around 1 steal, 12.5 points and 1 3-pointer a game. This makes him a very valuable player in fantasy. The only question is, now that Curry is back, will Robinson be given enough time to be a valuable fantasy pick up? Showing by the only game he has played with curry back, he played 18 minutes, had 6 points 5 assists and took 6 shots. These numbers would not be great for a fantasy team, but I think he might be given closer to 22-23 minutes, which might still make him valuable. Keep an eye on him for the next few games and then make a decision.

Tristan Thompson is currently averaging 8 points, 5 rebounds and 1 block a game on 48% shooting. The only downsides to Thompson are that he is currently shooting 40% from the free throw line and is only getting 18 minutes a game. This severely limits his fantasy value. In a deep league I might consider picking him up, but the only time he becomes valuable is if Antawn Jamison gets injured. This is the only way I can see Thompson getting an increase in playing time anytime soon. If the Cavs completely drop out of the playoff hunt then MAYBE Thompson might get an increase in time. Unless one of those two scenarios happens, hold off on Tristan Thompson.

Mahinmi, Mcgrady and Prince

Heard of Ian Mahinmi? I hadn’t until the Clippers played the Mavs a few nights back. The Mavs solution to losing Tyson Chandler was by moving Haywood into the starting line-up and giving Mahinmi more minutes. While watching Mahinmi, I decided to look up his stats to see if he could be a valuable fantasy player. In 20 minutes a game he has averaged 8 points and 5 rebounds, while shooting 65% from the field. Now he doesn’t take enough shots to make a huge difference in your fg%, but 65% shooting can’t hurt right? His only downsides are, firstly his ft%, which is around 63%, and secondly for a 7 footer (or close to), he doesn’t get very many blocks. Watching his ft stroke I believe the 63% ft shooting is due to a small sample size and or rust due to the lockout. He’s a career percentage is at 71.4% and last year he was at around 77%. If given more minutes I believe he could be a definite pickup, but as it is in deep leagues, if you’re in need of a center, I would consider him a definite option.

Tracy Mcgrady in his prime was a sure fire top round pick. He could shoot, rebound, assist, steal and block. Is he still valuable now? I believe he is, if he is given the time to play. He is currently getting about 20 minutes a game in Atlanta. If we remove the 3 games where he only played 8 minutes (I believe due to his back spasms), He has averages of 10 points, 2 assists and 5 rebounds, while shooting 50% from the field. Watching the Hawks last game against Portland, I was happy to see that he got 27 minutes of playing time. With Horford out, the Hawks need someone to step up. I feel Mcgrady can be that guy. He may not be the number 1 option anymore, but as a waiver wire pickup in a deep league I feel he can help your team. He is not the scorer he once was, but is now a rebounding guard.

Tayshaun Prince has been on my fantasy team multiple years in a row.  He is always a very late round pick, but has always helped me. He is currently averaging 11.7 points, 2 assists, 3 rebounds, and 0.7 3’s a game. His fg% is also down 5% from last year. While this may go up, I feel his rebounds and assists will not. The Pistons have too many players that like to ‘take the game in their own hands’. They are not a very assist heavy team, with Stuckey leading the team with 4.4 assists per game. In terms of rebounds Monroe in a beast in the paint and this will heavily dent the number of rebounds Prince can get. I have considered dropping him, but he’s had a scoring outburst in his last three games. I know this will not last due to the volume of shots he was taking in these games. These last 3 games he has taken 23, 22 and 15 shots and scored 29, 20 and 20 respectively. In his career he has averaged 11.1 shots a game and has never averaged more than 12.8 shots a game, which he averaged last year. With Monroe becoming the focal part of the team and players like Knight, Gordon, and Stuckey on the team, Prince was never going to get a high number of shots anyway. I still have hope that he can pull his averages up to his career numbers of 13 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists, but somehow I doubt it. Unless you are in a deep league, I would not consider picking him up since his current asset is only points.