Pekovic and Thomas

Did you miss out on Nikola Pekovic and Isaiah Thomas? I sure did. I noticed them while they were still on the waiver wire, but by the time I had made up my mind about them, they were gone. I’m usually hesitant to break up a winning team, so I don’t rush to make moves unless I’m sure of them, or unless my team is playing horribly. If you’re lucky and are in one of the leagues where they are not owned, you should seriously consider picking them up.

                Pekovic is a very skilled big man, and is built like a brick wall. At 6ft 11, 290, he is just huge and very hard to move. While this makes him a bit immobile, he can finish around the basket and has the size to get in position, whether it’s for a rebound or for a score. He is currently averaging a ridiculous 4 offensive rebounds a game, and this includes the first quarter of the season when he didn’t start, and wasn’t playing much. Since his move into the starting line-up he has averaged 9.7 rebounds and 18.7 points a game, which includes 2 games where he came off of the bench to play around 30+ minutes. His season shooting average is around 58%, to go along with 79% from the free throw line, which is great for a big man. While he won’t get you many blocks, he’s averaging about 1 a game since he moved into the starting line-up. He is great in every category you would want from you big man, and is also only averaging 2 turnovers a game during the same span, so he has no downside. If he is still available in your league, pick him up. I’ve seen him play, and he can definitely play.

                I watched Isaiah Thomas play in college. He is another guy who played really well in college, but due to his size, dropped down to the 30^th pick in the 2^nd round, the last pick of the draft. He has been compared to Nate Robinson, due to his physique and his style of play. The one difference I see between Thomas and Robinson is that Thomas is actually more of a point guard. While Robinson only averaged a high of 4.5 assists per game, in one season, in college, and a high of 4.1 during his NBA, Thomas averaged a little over 6 assists per game in his last season at UW. In his five starts for Sacramento, all coming in the last 5 games, he has averaged 6.8 assists per game. He has also kept his turnovers in check during that span, recording 2 turnovers in 3 of those games and 3 in another. In these last 5 games he has also averaged over 19 points a game on 50.7% shooting, while hitting 11 3’s at 44% from deep. However, he will not be able to keep this shooting up. In college he had a fg% high of 44 in his last year, but shot only 41% the other 2 years, and his 3pt% was 32.4%, with a high of 35% in his last year. While he did show improvement in his shooting over his college career, especially from beyond the arc, there is no way he can keep up this type of scoring. He definitely can play though. If he is still available in your league, pick him up. While he won’t give you steals, he doesn’t have much downside, and has a lot of potential. Now that he is being given the time, he will produce. Because of the players around him, his assist numbers will probably stay between 6-7 per game, his scoring might drop around 13-15, his fg% will definitely drop down to at least 44% and his 3pt% will drop as well. He will still give you at least one 3 a night, shoot at least 42% and won’t turn over the ball more than 3 times per game. For a waiver wire pickup, you can’t really ask for much more. Pick him up.

The Wild West Part 3 (Final Part)

The Western Conference has turned into a battlefield. Every seed, from 3^rd to 12^th, is separated from the seed behind them, by 1 game or less. The Clippers in the 3^rd seed, are only 3.5 games ahead of the 9^th seeded Nuggets, whom they beat last night. The 6^th seeded Rockets are only 3 games ahead of the 10^th seeded Timberwolves. And the 8^th seeded Blazers are only 4 games ahead of the 13^th seeded Suns. This means that halfway through the season, almost every team in the west is still in contention for the playoffs. There are five teams in the Western Conference that will make the playoffs for sure. These teams are the Thunder, the Spurs, the Mavericks, the Clippers and the Lakers. Barring injury to their star players, these five teams will find a way to make the playoffs. That leaves 3 spots being fought for by 8 teams. Which of these 8 teams will find a way into the playoffs? Today let’s focus on spots 7 and 6, Memphis and Houston.

Memphis has a very strong team. They are currently the 7^th seed, and are playing without one of their best players from last year, Zach Randolph, who is out injured. Last year they made the playoffs, without Rudy Gay, as the 8^th seed, and proceeded to knock out the 1^st seeded Spurs. While that was a huge upset, the Grizzlies match up very well with the Spurs and so it was not as big of a surprise. Sometimes certain teams just match up well with other teams. The Grizzlies have all the parts for a great team. They have a great starting line-up and some good players off of the bench. Marc Gasol is an All-Star and probably the 2^nd best center in the west behind Bynum. Their weak point is currently at the power forward position, but when Randolph comes back, in him they have a 20-10 guy and that will allow them to move Speights back to the bench, where he can be more productive. Rudy Gay is a very good player and can play the small forward and power forward position. As a power forward I have seen him cause many problems for opposing power forwards due to his speed and athleticism. Tony Allen and Mike Conley form a great back court that can harass the best guards in the league. I saw Conley cause Chris Paul a lot of problems when they matched up. Conley is an above average point guard and has run the team very well. Neither of them are great scorers but that is not their role on the team. Tony Allen is there for his defense, while Mike Conley is a great defensive guard and has also run the team very well. Between the 2 of them, they average almost 4.5 steals a game. Conley is also capable of hitting shots from deep. This year he sits at 33% but he has a career average of 37.5%. The Grizzlies also have O.J. Mayo coming off the bench. He struggled last year after being moved to the bench, but this year, especially as of late, has played very well and has been a huge spark off of the bench for the Grizzlies. They have some other good role players who can come in for and spell their starters in Haddadi, Pondexter, and Arthur. The only thing working against the Grizzlies is that they are a very young team. While they gained experience from last year’s playoffs, they still have a ways to go. This is a team that relies on its defense to win games and that will allow them to make some noise in the playoffs. With a healthy team, the Grizzlies will be a very tough matchup for any team in the playoffs. They will make the playoffs. With how well they’ve played so far, without Randolph, they will be a very scary team when he comes back.

Houston’s team is very underrated. They have had some very impressive wins, and some very tough losses. Kevin McHale has done a great job with this team. They play very scrappy and it is hard not to root for them. They work very hard, and play every game with 100% intensity. They finally, temporarily, solved their problem at center. After having a 6ft 6 center in Hayes last year, they were able to land Dalembert for a 2 year deal in the offseason. He has been huge for their defense. In him they finally have a presence in the lane that they haven’t had since Yao Ming was healthy. Next to him they have Luis Scola, who is a very underrated player. Last year he averaged 18 and 9, and even though his production is down this year, he is still a hard working forward and can play in the post as well as hit the jumper outside. Part of his drop in production could be due to his unhappiness to being included in the nixed Chris Paul trade. Kevin Martin has been a very efficient shooter his entire career. He gets to the line at a career average of 6.6, and has averaged as high as 10 ft’s a game in a season. This year he hasn’t done that as much and has struggled for consistency. This could also be due to his inclusion in the same Chris Paul trade. The small forward position is probably their weak link. They have 2 small forwards with completely different strenghts Parsons is the defender and rebounder while Budinger is the scorer. Budinger has struggled with consistency though his career, and so the Rockets have opted to start Parsons and bring Budinger off the bench for more consistency in their starting lineup. Their bench is very strong as well. They bring a great point guard in Dragic off the bench along with another versatile player in Courtney Lee. I purposely left their starting point guard for last, because he will be the one who pushes them into the playoffs. Kyle Lowry is currently probably the most underrated point guard in the league. Since taking over the starting spot when Brooks got injured last year, he has been a borderline All-Star. When he first came into the league his jumper was a bit iffy, but since last year, he has had a reliable jump shot and has hit 37.5% from 3 over the last two seasons. He is the typical hardnosed Villanova product, and knows how to get into the lane and how to draw the foul. He is a great creator and his assist numbers have jumped from 4.5 two years ago to 7.6 this year. What sets him apart from most other point guards is that he is a great rebounder as well. For a 6 foot point guard to be averaging over 5 rebounds a game is amazing. Along with all his offensive skills, he is also a good, if undersized, defender. Lowry is one of the big reasons the Rockets are playing so well. With Martin struggling with consistency and a down year for Scola, Lowry will be why the Rockets make the playoffs. They have a lot of talent, and McHale has done a great job coaching them.

Now that I’ve gone through all the teams fighting for those last 3 spots, here are my predictions: The Rockets, Grizzlies and Nuggets will make the playoffs, with Portland, Utah, and Minnesota barely missing out.

The Meaningless (All-Star) Game

I’ve never been a fan of the All-Star game. It’s always just an offensive show with the defenders just moving out of the way. I understand that no one wants to get hurt in a game that basically means nothing, but that’s the problem right there. The MLB All-Star game determines who gets home field and while I don’t like this idea at all, at least it brings some meaning to the game. The players play hard, dive for balls, and play it like a regular season game. While the NBA All-Star game might be fun for the casual supporter to watch, for a basketball enthusiast it is very difficult to watch. Those hustle plays like diving for the ball, fighting for rebounds, closing out shooters, and just playing defense in general, just do not show up in the game. The intricacies of the game go missing. I see more heart put into playing pick-up games at the courts near my house. The only way to solve this would be to put some meaning into the game but I don’t like the idea of an All-Star game deciding who gets home court advantage in the NBA Finals.

So the question is still, why risk getting hurt for a meaningless game? And I completely understand that. The regular season holds more importance anyway so maybe it’s just better to get rid of these games all together. Instead of playing an All-Star game where none of the players show any interest, why not get rid of it and add more competitions? There could be a 1 v 1 tournament, or basketball darts from one side of the court to the other. There could be a machine gun competition with the same, or new, set of shooters from the 3-point competition. You could mix American Gladiators with basketball and find a new competition. The possibilities are endless, but are they better than a no meaning, no heart, All-Star game? I would sure enjoy it more, but the casual fan might not. So instead to make everyone happy, I propose a new solution. If the players in the All-Star game are not going to take it seriously, then they should have to wear the mascots of their respective team and play the entire game like that, until the last 5 minutes because that’s when they start to “care”. At least then it would make me laugh for reasons other than the defensive futility in the game. Until the players decide to start taking it seriously, I have no reason to watch the whole game. The only time the players become “competitive” is during the last five minutes anyway.

The Wild West Part 2

The Western Conference has turned into a battlefield. Every seed, from 3^rd to 12^th, is separated from the seed behind them, by 1 game or less. The Clippers in the 3^rd seed, are only 3.5 games ahead of the 9^th seeded Nuggets, whom they beat last night. The 6^th seeded Rockets are only 3 games ahead of the 10^th seeded Timberwolves. And the 8^th seeded Blazers are only 4 games ahead of the 13^th seeded Suns. This means that halfway through the season, almost every team in the west is still in contention for the playoffs. There are five teams in the Western Conference that will make the playoffs for sure. These teams are the Thunder, the Spurs, the Mavericks, the Clippers and the Lakers. Barring injury to their star players, these five teams will find a way to make the playoffs. That leaves 3 spots being fought for by 8 teams. Which of these 8 teams will find a way into the playoffs? Today let’s focus on spots 9 and 8, Denver and Portland.

Currently seeded 9^th and half a game behind the 8^th spot, the Nuggets are in great position to take a playoff spot. They started off extremely hot, 14-5, and had a top 3 record until they succumbed to the injury bug. They lost 10 of 14 in February and have dropped to 18-17. Gallinari, Lawson, Fernandez and Nene have all missed huge chunks of time. Lawson, Fernandez and Nene should be back sooner than Gallinari, who has a chip fracture in his foot. These aren’t just part time players, three of them are starters and Fernandez is a spark of the bench. They should get healthy soon after the All-Star break. The Nuggets are a team that really scares me. The players in their second unit are all good enough to be starters in the NBA. They beat you with their depth and their all round team mentality. They have 7 players averaging over 10 points a game and another one close behind. They currently have the quickest pace in the NBA and love to push the ball in transition. They keep bringing players at you off of the bench and never let off the gas. When healthy, this team can play. Lawson is a great young point guard and can push the pace. He has been shooting over 47% and scoring 15.4 points a game, but more importantly he doesn’t turn the ball over very much. He averages 6.1 assists a game, and only 2.3 turnovers in 34 minutes a game. For reference, Chris Paul is averaging 2.3 turnovers currently as well, although in 2 more minutes. Afflalo is finally starting to get his game back. He did not play much during the offseason because he did not want to get injured and risk a contract since he was a free agent. Gallinari has been playing really well and is looking like the players the Knicks had hoped he’d be when they drafted him. Nene is a great power forward. He has always been a very consistent player and you know what he can give night in and night out. They last a good center, but Mozgov has shown some potential. Their bench is what sets them apart. With Andre Miller off of the bench they have an experienced vet who can command the floor. Harrington is a great scoring threat and having him off of the bench is a luxury not many teams have. In Fernandez and Brewer they have two more very capable players who can come in. Wilson Chandler is a restricted free agent and could sign with the Nuggets soon as well, having just returned from China. This would give them even more depth. The only problem is that they do not have a true superstar. This usually becomes a problem when the game is on the line and someone has to take over. They have so many players that can score, but no one who can really take over a game. Still even with this, I know that this team will make the playoffs. How far they get in the playoffs is up in the air. They have a deep team that can push anyone to the brink during the playoffs. They play hard and always hustle, but in crunch time you need someone to step up. Who will step up for Denver?

Portland was basically left for dead after news of Brandon Roy’s retirement and Greg Oden’s injuries, but somehow they have regrouped and have put a great team out on the floor. Aldridge has stepped up and taken the throne and has become the franchise star. Felton and Matthews are both good guards, but their problem this year has been consistency. When Portland got off to that hot start at the beginning of the year, it was because they had great play from their guards. Since then Matthews and Felton have both struggled. Gerald Wallace has always been a very talented player. With the Blazers he doesn’t have the same scoring burden he did in Charlotte, but he is still putting up decent numbers and finding ways to contribute. Marcus Camby has always been a great center. He can play defense and change shots, and brings in the rebounds by the bucket. He is not much of an offensive threat but he doesn’t have to be. Jamal Crawford is always a candidate for sixth man of the year. He brings a great punch off of the bench and has taken on more point guard duties than he had in Atlanta. He is a capable passer and a great scorer. He is a consistent scoring threat and will always find a way to score. Craig Smith and Kurt Thomas are both capable backups and are good players to have coming off of the bench. Then they have Batum. Batum is an extremely talented player but currently lacks the consistency he needs. He was recently moved into the starting line up ahead of Matthews and has shown some consistency but he needs to be able to sustain this run for a long period before he can shed the inconsistent tag. Portland have hoped that is play would help the guard play become more consistent. Portland has a great team and a deep team. They have the capabilities to push any team in the playoffs, but can they make the playoffs? Unless their guard play becomes more consistent, they won’t get a playoff seed. Except during their great start, they’ve struggled against playoff teams and are going to have a hard time getting a playoff seed unless they learn to beat the playoff level competition.

The Wild West Part 1

The Western Conference has turned into a battlefield. Every seed, from 3^rd to 12^th, is separated from the seed behind them, by 1 game or less. The Clippers in the 3^rd seed, are only 3.5 games ahead of the 9^th seeded Nuggets, whom they beat last night. The 6^th seeded Rockets are only 3 games ahead of the 10^th seeded Timberwolves. And the 8^th seeded Blazers are only 4 games ahead of the 13^th seeded Suns. This means that halfway through the season, almost every team in the west is still in contention for the playoffs. There are five teams in the Western Conference that will make the playoffs for sure. These teams are the Thunder, the Spurs, the Mavericks, the Clippers and the Lakers. Barring injury to their star players, these five teams will find a way to make the playoffs. That leaves 3 spots being fought for by 8 teams. Which of these 8 teams will find a way into the playoffs? Today let’s focus on spots 10 though 13.

Let’s start at the bottom with the Suns, who currently sit 4 games out of the 8^th spot. While Nash and Gortat have both played well, the players around them have been inconsistent and just don’t have the talent some of the teams above them have. Jared Dudley has been playing well, scoring almost 12 points a game on 48% shooting, but he has been inconsistent. In his last 6 games he has scored 6, 11, 8, 25, 8 and 17. Frye is a streaky shooter and has not been able to get going. He is currently shooting 40.5% from the field and 33.8% from 3, which are 4% and 5% lower than his career averages. Age has caught up to Grant Hill and he is nowhere close to the same player he was even 5-6 years ago. His shooting is also down 7% from his 48.4% career average. I haven’t been watching the Suns, but it could be that he can’t get to the rim the same way he used to, which is the age old issue as players get older. The Suns don’t have the talent to make the playoff push and will not be in the playoffs this year.

Next are the Warriors. I have already done a post about the Warriors and everything that I said in that post still stands for this conversation. Please reference “Can the Warriors Be Contenders?” for a more in depth write-up about their team. The Warriors are one of the best offensive teams in the league, ranking in the top 5 in offensive efficiency. But they have an atrocious defense and are ranked in the bottom 5. Because of their lack of defense, I don’t think they will make the playoffs. However, a team with as much fire power as them could shoot their way into the playoffs in this shortened season. If Jackson can teach his players how to get even a little bit better at defense, I can see this team getting the 8^th seed. But for now, they won’t make it.

The Jazz have had a major roster turnover from the team we used to know. Deron Williams and Boozer are both gone, as are Kirilenko and Okur. They have a very deep front line with Jefferson and Milsap starting, and Kanter and Favors coming off of the bench. But their point guard and small forward play has been very inconsistent. Raja Bell is a good defender and a great 3 point shooter. He is a very great 3 point shooter, currently at 43.4% for the year. This is not much of an anomaly considering he has shot over 40% from 3 for his career. Gordon Hayward has taken over the starting spot since AK47 left, and has done a decent job at the position. He has shown glimpses of the skills that made him a top 10 pick. His inconsistency seems to be more due to not being able to get involved in the offense. He is playing 28 minutes a game but is only taking 8 shots during that span. From his college stats we know he can score and rebound. He averaged 15.5 points, on 47% shooting, and 8 rebounds a game during his senior year. He is capable of becoming a good player but still has work to do. The major problem for the Jazz is at the point guard position. Devin Harris has struggled mightily since his All-Star year in New Jersey. His minutes have dropped down to about 26 a game, which is this first time since his 3^rd year in the league that they’ve been under 30. His scoring drastically dropped, but what’s worse is that his assist numbers have dropped from 7 a game 2 years ago, to 4.6 this year. He has been much more hesitant this year to shoot the ball and doesn’t seem to have his confidence anymore. Unless he picks up his play this Jazz team will struggle to make the playoffs. He is the only true point guard on this team and the team’s fortunes rest with him. While the Jazz have been great at home, with some good wins against great teams, between the inconsistent Harris and the horrible road record, 3-11, the Jazz won’t make the playoffs this year.

The Timberwolves are the last team I will discuss in this post. Out of the teams I have talked about so far, the Wolves have the best chance of making a push for the playoffs. They have a talented team surrounding one of the best players in the league.  Kevin Love is currently in the conversation for being the best power forward in the NBA. His current averages of 25 points and 14 rebounds a game are not even matched by Dwight Howard. What’s amazing is that he can score from anywhere on the court. He can shoot the 3’s, jumpers, and is great around the rim. He is the total package at the power forward spot. The T-Wolves have also finally solved their problem at center. Darko Milicic is a decent backup but is not a player you want starting at center. For his size he is a horrible rebounder. Nikola Pekovic has come in and made the spot his own. He is producing at levels that Darko never could. He is currently shooting over 58% from the field and averaging 12.5 points and 7.2 rebounds. While he is not a shot blocker like Darko, he weighs 15 more pounds than him and is only an inch shorter. With his physical attributes he should still be able to trouble most centers. Ricky Rubio is a great play maker and has done a great job of getting the ball to his teammates in the right places. His ability to make plays for his teammates more than makes up for his subpar shooting. As a point guard, his job is to get others shots, and that is exactly what he is doing. Thanks to Rubio, Ridnour can play off the ball much more. He has been shooting well and is a decent complement to Rubio. With Beasley, Barea and Williams, two of whom are top 2 draft picks, bringing the scoring punch off of the bench, the T-Wolves have a strong starting line-up with a very capable bench. They have some quality wins against playoff level teams, and also have had some very close losses against quality teams. If they learn to play together as the season goes on, they have a very good chance at making the playoffs. They may not make it this year, but after the experience they gain this year, and a full offseason together, they will make the playoffs next year.

Of Spurs and Titles

It seems that every year writers and analysts forget to mention the Spurs in title conversations and every year the Spurs find a way to reestablish themselves into the conversation. The Spurs have quietly taken over the 2^nd best record in the West, which is not surprising. They have a great coach as well as players that complement each other very well. What is surprising though is that they have a 23-10 record with Duncan on limited minutes, and Ginobili, arguably their best offensive player, on limited minutes and only playing in 9 games due to injury. If they get to the playoffs healthy, they will be a scary team for anyone to face. Similar to last year, Popovich is playing Duncan around 28 minutes a game during the season, and will probably push him, along with Ginobili and Parker, to 35 minutes during the playoffs. With those three fresh for the playoffs the Spurs might just be the team to beat in the West.

In my last post I talked about how the Spurs have a great offensive set up, with their main 3 players surrounded by players who can work well as complements. Defensively the Spurs have always been great. While they have lost some of their great defensive players from their championship years, they still have a good defense. They are currently ranked 16^th in defensive efficiency, which is unlike them. A bit part of this can be attributed to Duncan’s minutes being limited. He is such a big part of their defense that with him playing only 28 minutes a game, their defense would suffer a bit. Once his minutes are back up in the playoffs, they should be a very solid team defensively. Their recently ended 11 game win streak had a lot to do with defensive play. They held opponents to 91.5 points per game while scoring 99.5 points per game.  What’s even more impressive is that 8 of those 11 games came on the road. They beat Memphis twice, Philadelphia, the Clippers and the Jazz, all on the road. These teams have a combined home record of 49-21, so these were not pushover games. Their home wins came against OKC, who hold the best record in the West, and Houston, who currently hold the 6^th seed.  Amazingly, only 4 of their 11 wins during the streak came against non-playoff teams. Playing the way they are right now, this Spurs team is going to be very difficult to beat in a seven game series. If they get to the playoffs healthy, they will be a huge force in the playoffs and can make a push to the finals. But in this shortened season, with an aging core, the question is can they get to the playoffs healthy?

Can the Warriors Be Contenders?

The Warriors have beaten many good teams at home this season, and have had many of their loses come by 3 points or less. In many other games they were also played out the game closely until the final few minutes before they lost. So the question is, do the Warriors have the potential to get back into the playoffs and maybe make some noise?

The Warriors have a very well put together team. The front office has done a good job of getting the right players to complement their stars. It reminds me a bit of the Spurs. Let me explain. The Spurs have both Parker and Ginobili who can drive to the lane and either create their own shot or draw in the defense and pass out to an open shooter. Duncan is a great jump shooter and is great around the paint. Then around these three main players they have Blair and Jefferson. Blair is going to be stationed under the basket and, along with grabbing the rebounds, is going to finish any play when he gets the ball in the paint. Jefferson is not the player he once was, but is still a great 3 point shooter. Off of the bench they have 3-point threats in Gary Neal and Matt Bonner, a defensive specialist in Kawhi Leonard and a great backup center in Splitter. All of these players complement the Spurs main three, which is why the Spurs are able to play so well.

The Warriors have a very similar team. In Ellis and Curry they have two guards capable of getting to the lane at will, and either finish or draw in the defense and pass out to an open shooter. Both of these players can also shoot the lights out of the ball. They have a great power forward in David Lee, who can finish around the rim or step back for a jumper. They then have Dorrell Wright who is a great 3 point shooter, even though he is not having a great year shooting so far.  And starting at center they have either Biedrins or, after last night’s game, Udoh. Both of these centers are capable of finishing around the rim and can rebound and play a little bit of defense, similar to Blair on the Spurs. They have a huge spark off of the bench in Nate Robinson, followed by two great shooters in Klay Thompson and Brandon Rush, both of whom are shooting over 45% from 3 so far. Kwame Brown is a serviceable back-up center.

So after that we can see that these two teams are both very similarly built. They have great guards who can light up the scoring and draw in the defenses, a great 3 point threat at small forward, as well as two more great shooters off of the bench, a power forward who can finish around the rim or step back for a jumper, a center who can get the put-backs and finish around the rim, followed by some role players off of the bench. So then why are the Spurs at the top of the conference and the Warriors at the bottom? This question is most easily answered by defense. While the Warriors are probably the better offensive team, their defense is usually non-existent. Both of their starting guards are 6 ft 3, Wright is not a great defender, and David Lee isn’t a great defender either. All of their main bench players are scorers and don’t play defense very well. The Spurs can win games even when they go cold from the field because they have capable defenders. The Warriors usually get into a shoot out to get the win.  If Jackson can instill some defense into this team, they may become the next coming of the Spurs. But due to the fact that they are a bit undersized and just don’t seem to want to play defense, I don’t think they will become contenders.

Belinelli

With Eric Gordon out for the next month or two, Belinelli will continue to get starts. Does that make him a worthy pick up? Streaky shooters like Belinelli are always a risk to pick up, especially when the only stat they really help you in is shooting. He is currently averaging 10.5 points per game on 40.4% field goal shooting, which is the 2^nd lowest percentage in his short career, with 1.5 3’s a game. He is currently shooting a career low in 3-point percentage, at 36.9%. He also averages 2.5 rebounds, 1.2 assist and about a steal a game. This makes him a very category specific choice, with that category being 3 pointers. I had him a few years back and he really helped me with 3 pointers, but when I picked him up, I knew that was all I could expect. The most important part about picking up players like Belinelli, or any waiver wire pick-up really, is knowing what you’re going to get.

In his last six games he has averaged a little under 16 points per game, a little over a steal a game, over 2 3-pointers a game and has shot 45% percent from the field. On the other hand, in that same span, he has averaged about 1 rebound a game and 2 assists. While one good sign is that in this six game stretch he is being given 34 minutes a game, which is 4 minutes more than his season average. That means he MIGHT have a chance to contribute a little bit more than his season stat line, however I would only expect a slight increase in points and 3’s, assuming that he continues to get 34 minutes. He had an increase of 4 minutes a game from last season to this season and it has not affected his stats positively. From last season to this season, his points and assists per game have stayed the same, while his fg% has gone down. He has doubled his steals per game to about 1 a game, but that’s the only positive thing to happen to his stat line with the minutes increase. That being said, if you have some deadweight on your team, or you just really need 3’s, then Belinelli can definitely contribute and help you. Other than those two cases, I don’t see any reason anyone should be picking him up.

Dwight Howard's Closer Request

Recently, after a win on the road against the Bucks, Dwight Howard told reporters that he wanted to get more touches in the forth quarter. This request comes with very strange timing. Firstly, it came after a win where the Magic were down and mounted a come back thanks to a 16-0 run. That reason on it's own is odd enough but also when you are a historically bad free throw shooter you run the risk of completely letting the game get out of hand. Every time Dwight touches the ball, all the other team has to do is foul him, and they can walk away knowing that he won't hit both free throws. Secondly, Howard's trade request still stands. He will still most likely be traded, and will not be coming back to Orlando. If you openly ask for a trade, and you are currently being shopped to other teams, you have no right to ask for more of a part in your current team. This hold especially true if you're asking for the closer position. Being your team's go to guy in the fourth quarter means that your team has to trust you and have faith in you. You have to be the one that they turn to. How can Dwight expect the rest of the Magic to trust him at all, when he does not want to be in a Magic jersey anymore? Completely ignore his bad free throw shooting or his dominance or anything about his playing style. Why would his teammates want to give him the ball at the end of the game, when they know in a month or so, he will be gone? Why would they want to rely on someone who is leaving them because he does not think they'r good enough? Dwight is starting to sound like a player who is only interested in himself. Superman has found a new kryptonite; it's the words coming out of his mouth.

Liverpool vs Manchester United Preview

Liverpool vs Manchester United. This is the biggest rivalry in English soccer. The two most storied clubs in English history will take the pitch on Saturday. A loss for either will massively dent their league aspirations, while a draw could be just as bad. Manchester United are still in the title race, trailing Man City by 3 points. Liverpool are still in the race for the last Champions League spot and trail 4^th place Chelsea by 4 points. The last time these teams met at Old Trafford, it was Dalglish’s first game back as Liverpool Manager. The result was a 1-0 loss for Liverpool and knocked them out of the F.A. Cup. Liverpool returned the favor a few months later with a 3-1 trashing at Anfield courtesy of a Dirk Kuyt hatrick. The sides have already met twice this season, both at Anfield. The first, an entertaining 1-1 draw in which United were lucky to leave with a point. In the second, Liverpool knocked United out of the F.A. Cup, 2-1, with a late Kuyt winner.

While both sides have had their injury problems this season, they both also have welcomed back key parts of their team in recent weeks. United had Rooney, Young, Nani and Cleverly return training, though only Rooney and Young played in the Chelsea game over the weekend. Liverpool had Suarez return from his 8-game ban, and while he only appeared as a substitute for the Tottenham game, he is expected to start this weekend in Manchester. He should receive a hostile reception at the hands of the Untied fans due to his use of racial language towards Evra. Both teams have key parts of their defense currently missing. United are missing Vidic, who is out for the season, and Lindegaard. While Liverpool are missing Lucas, for the season, and Enrique may not be fit to play this weekend due to a tightened hamstring that forced him to miss their last game.

With both teams having great defenses, this should be a low scoring affair. Even though United have doubled Liverpool’s goal scored total and scored 3 over the weekend at Stamford Bridge, this should be a much more defense oriented game. Both managers have great respect for each other and won’t be willing to test their luck by going on the offensive too early. There will be a no nonsense style of play, similar to their first encounter. The second half should feature a more attacking style. If Liverpool get beat, it will be from United’s wing play. Valencia caused many problems for Liverpool during the last encounter and was unlucky to not score with a shot that hit the post. I expect Young to cause just as many problems, even though he was very quiet during the first league match at Anfield this year. Andy Carroll was a big part of both goals for Liverpool during the F.A. Cup encounter and I expect him to cause similar problems during this game. He distracted De Gea which allowed Agger to score the first goal, and he flicked on a long ball for Kuyt to score the second. He has been in much better form recently and my feeling is that he will either assist or score a goal for Liverpool. Watch for Suarez to terrorize the United defense the same way he has in their previous league encounters.  I’m going to say that Liverpool will win 2-1. Being a Liverpool fan this might be wishful thinking, but I know they have the talent to cause United problems and have played well against United in the recent past. This fixture is always a can’t miss game and should be a great game to watch.

Can the Clippers replace Billups?

With the loss of Billups, the Clippers need to find a replacement. The in-house candidate is Randy Foye and the potential free agent signing is J.R. Smith. Can the Clippers replace Billups with Foye or with J.R. Smith?  Let’s start from the defensive perspective. Billups is shorter and weighs less than Smith and Foye. J.R. is a true shooting guard at 6ft 6 and 220 pounds. Foye is still in the combo guard area at 6ft 4 and 213, but is bigger than Billups who is 6ft 3, 202. Billups is also older and has lost some of his agility which means Foye and Smith are both physically capable of being better defenders than Billups. The question is, are they better defenders? While I might say Foye is as good as or better defensively than Billups, Smith just never seemed to be interested in defending. He seems to be stuck on the offensive side of the ball, but he does have the physical ability to be a good defender. He has the size and speed to cause problems on the defensive end, but you have to get him to want to play defensive. So for now Foye is an upgrade defensively and J.R. smith might help us from the size perspective but his defense is still extremely questionable.

From the offensive side of the ball, Foye and Smith are both more than capable of putting up the points that Billups did. They are not great facilitators of the ball, since they are more shooting guards and so we will ignore their assist numbers and passing ability. Foye has averaged up to 16 points a game in a season as a starter and Smith has averaged up to 15.4 points a game as a first option off of the bench. Billups is currently averaging 15 points a game so both these players are capable. All three of these players are capable 3-point shooters. While Billups is undoubtedly the best 3-point shooter of the lot, the other two aren’t far behind. Billups is at 38.9% for his career from beyond the arc, Smith is close behind at 37.1% and Foye is at 36%. So while you are losing a few percentage points from each player, they both are decent enoughthey should be decent replacement for the 3-point shooting Billups was capable of. The biggest downfall from Billups to each of these players statistically, is the ability to get to the line. Billups over his career has had a knack for getting fouled and getting the gimmie shots from the line. He has also shot close to 90% from the line in his career. Smith and Foye have gotten to the line 2.5 times a game over their career and have shot 75% and 85%, respectively, from the line. The disparity in free throw shooting is statistically where the biggest drop off is. Billups has been a very efficient player throughout his career; he has been able to score points without having to take too many shots. For his career he averages 15.5 points a game on 11.2 shots a game. While J.R. came close to this in one season, scoring 15.2 points a game on 11.7 shots, his career averages of 12.5 points on 10.3 shots show a lack of efficiency. Randy Foye is similar to Smith and has averaged 11.5 points a game on 10 shots a game in his career. In his 16.3 points a game season, his highest scoring season, he was taking 14 shots a game. Billups has had seasons where he has put up 17+ points a game while taking less than 12 shots a game. This season Billups was averaging 15 points a game on 11.4 shots. J.R. would have to replicate his one efficiently great year, out of his 7 years in the league, to replicate Billups without any statistical downside. Chances of Smith doing that are slim but Foye probably doesn’t have a chance to replicate this efficiency since he has never been extremely efficient.  

Offensively and defensively the Clippers may be able to get the production they need from a replacement. The intangibles are where Billups cannot be replaced: his knowledge of the game, his leadership and his ability to hit the big shots. He is Mr. Big Shot for a reason, and we have seen that this season with his outburst against Denver and his game winner against Dallas. His ability to work alongside Paul as second great floor general, which is what made the Clippers unique, will also be missed. The rest of the team will have to step up in his absence. I think the Clippers can cope with this loss, Foye and Smith are both capable replacements, but Billups will be sorely missed.

Is Jeremy Lin for real?

Is Jeremy Lin for real? I think it’s a bit too early to be calling him the Knicks savior, or for the MVP chants from the fans but he is an upgrade over Shumpert and Douglas because he is an actual point guard. He has court vision and looks to make the passes that a point guard should make. He had 7 assists in the first game he was given big minutes, 36 minutes, and followed that with 8 assists in 45 minutes. While he did turn the ball over 8 times in the 2^nd game, that can be attributed to rust and lack of playing time with the other players. It may take some time for him to learn where his teammates like the ball, but it will happen and as it does the turnovers will go down. The big question is still over playing time. Douglas and Shumpert both had very short leashes when they were given the starting job, but they are also not true point guards. Lin should be given a bigger leash and should be given the playing time, especially considering Baron Davis has had his return put on hold with an elbow inflammation which is linked to his back injury. Lin probably won’t put up 25+ points a night on 50%+ shooting from the field, or average 2 steals a game, like he has in his last 2 games, but he will put up decent numbers. I wouldn’t be surprised if he puts up 13 points, 6-7 assists and a steal a game. As a fantasy owner, I’m not sure if I’m ready to jump on his bandwagon yet, but if you have a useless player on your team that you don’t mind losing, go with Lin. He has the most upside of most players on the waiver wire. Wouldn’t you rather have him and find out he’s not worth a spot than have your friend have him while you dream about how he would have won you the league? Pick him up, it’s worth a shot.

Liverpool vs Tottenham preview

With Man U. and Chelsea drawing, this is the opportunity for Tottenham and Liverpool to pounce. With a win, Tottenham would keep pace with Man city, and move within 3 points of 2^nd placed Man United. If Liverpool win they would move to within 2 points of 4^th placed Chelsea, who currently hold the last Champions League spot. Tottenham have beaten Liverpool in their last 3 league encounters, the most recent being a 4-0 mauling at White Hart Lane. However, Liverpool have not lost at Anfield all season and have historically been very difficult to beat at home.

Steven Gerrad and Luis Suarez will both be back for this game. Gerrard was rested for the game at Wolves at least, while Suarez is returning from his 8-game ban for racism. Gerrard should be slotted back into the starting squad but it will be seen whether Dalglish also opts to move Suarez into the starting line-up as well, or whether he starts him on the bench. Tottenham have major injury concerns in their strike force with Adebayor, Van der Vaart, Defoe and Lennon all injured. This means that Saha may get his first start in his first game for Tottenham. Saha has scored only one league goal in 15 games for Everton, but Tottenham’s midfield is steps above Everton’s and this may help him get on the score sheet. Dos Santos might also be in line for a start due to the injuries in Tottenham’s squad. Dos Sanots has the talent to be a great player, but needs to make use of the chances he gets, and it is yet to be seen if he can thrive in the EPL. Right back Kyle Walker may also miss out due to injury.

Last time out against Liverpool, Parker and Modric bossed the midfield for Tottenham. However, Gerrard was missing due to injury and Adam was still getting acclimated to the Liverpool team and was out of form. This time out Gerrard is back and has been back to his instrumental self. Adam is also in much better form and could be a huge factor with his long balls. But they will both be in for a huge test coming up against Parker and Modric, who have both had great seasons, and have been major reasons for Tottenham’s success. We cannot forget about the influence Bale has had on this team. His goal scoring ability from the left of midfield has been a huge boost for a team who has had more goals from their midfield than from their strike force. If Van der Vaart does miss out, along with Defoe and Adebayor, the pressure will be on the Tottenham midfield to score goals. This could end up being their downfall in this game. It would be asking too much of any midfield to, not only score at Anfield, but also to stop an in form Liverpool from scoring. The return of their talismanic midfielder and striker, Gerrad and Suarez, along with playing at home, will be a huge boost for Liverpool and I predict a 2-1 Liverpool win.

Chelsea vs Man United preview

Chelsea will be looking to avenge their early season loss to Man United but the pressure will be on both of these teams to win. With Man City winning today Man U need to keep the pressure on them and will need a win in order to tie them on points at the top of the table, while Chelsea, currently have the last Champions League spot and need a win to keep ahead of the rest of the pack.  Chelsea started the season against the top sides with losses away to Man U., and at home to Liverpool and Arsenal. Since then they have recovered their big game form with impressive victories away at Newcastle and at home to Man City, as well as an away draw at Tottenham. Man U. on the other hand started the season great against the big teams, but as of late had stuttered until a win two weeks ago against Arsenal.
Man United have welcomed back Young, Nani, Rooney and Cleverly from injury and will be hoping their quartet can boost the team to victory. Their defense will suffer due to the season ending injury to Vidic and the recent injury to Phil Jones.  Chelsea will still be missing Drogba due to the Africa Cup of Nations and Terry will miss this game due to injury. This will put more pressure on Torres and Sturridge to hold the front line up and fire the team to victory. My gut tells me that Torres will start this game, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is Sturridge who gets the call to lead the line and Torres ends up on the bench. This also means that Gary Cahill could get his first start in a Chelsea uniform, but AVB might be hesitant to put Cahill into such a big game before having enough practice with the team.
Man U have had the better run of form coming into this game, but both teams have suffered recent shock results. Man U lost to Blackburn while Chelsea lost to Aston Villa and have drawn their last 2 games against recently promoted sides Norwich and Swansea. With Chelsea playing at home this game should flow very freely. Look for a couple good early chances for both teams, since they will both be looking to gain the advantage early and will be on the attack. Chelsea have always been very difficult to beat at home, but Man United have also been very good on the road. If this is anything like their last game it will be a must watch and you will not be disappointed. With both teams being a bit suspect in their defense, look for a close, high scoring game. My prediction is a 3-2 win for Chelsea.

Former Nuggets, Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith

Today I’m going to talk about two of the players who signed contracts in China, J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin, since they will probably be back first. Martin and Smith are both free agents and are free to sign with any team. Martin is considering 5 teams currently with the Clippers and the Heat at the top of his list. Regardless to which of the 5 teams he goes to, he will be a backup player. We’re looking at about 20-25 minutes a game, probably closer to 20. Looking at his numbers from last year, he averaged 25 minutes a game, 8.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.7 blocks on 51% shooting from the field. His numbers for the rest of the season, once he signs, should be a little lower than that. I think we can still expect about 6 rebounds but fewer points. The steals and blocks should stay around the same. I have not heard any rumors of where Smith could go, so that part is still a mystery, but I don’t think he will be a free agent for that long. Any team looking for a bench scorer will most likely be interested in signing him and since he’s been playing games he should be in pretty decent game shape. I wouldn’t expect him to get more than 25 minutes a game, which would put him around par for his career. Judging by his career numbers, I think we can expect stats similar to those from last year but possibly a bit higher. Last year he averaged 12.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.6 3’s on 43.5% shooting. Those numbers are about par for his career numbers, except the rebounding. His career rebounding numbers are at 2.8 per game and he has only been over 3 per game the last 3 years. While this could show a new trend for him, I wouldn’t expect more than 3.2 a game.

                So is either of these players valuable for fantasy? Smith can be counted on to give you 3’s and steals, which are two of the lower scoring categories and so each added one is more valuable. Smith is also known to go off on his 3 point shooting and could be a big wildcard for your team come playoff time. I know he helped me a few years back where he went off for 5 3’s in a game. Martin, on the other hand, is the more consistent player.  While he won’t give you the 3’s he still averages almost a steal a game and will still give you rebounds.

If Smith can give you 4 rebounds a game he would be giving you help in the same categories as Martin and more. I would say take a chance on Smith. Plus it’s always more fun when J.R. is on your team because you never know what you’re going to get.

Race for the EPL Title and Champs League Spots

                      Today I want to talk about the Premier League since the transfer window ended yesterday. No big transfers happened in the 6 of the EPL. There were very few transfers during the window and even fewer major transfers. Djibril Cisse and Bobby Zamora transferred to QPR, Jelavic went to Everton and Gary Cahill was sold to Chelsea. Tottenham swapped Pienaar back to Everton for Saha. While QPR’s striker signings could help keep them out of the relegation zone, nothing happened to change the balance of power. Man City got David Pizzaro on loan, but I doubt he will see too much time and is more of a depth signing.  So who will win the title and who will finish in the top four? I think it’s safe to say Man City, Man United and Tottenham are currently a class above the rest. There is no doubt in my mind that these 3 teams will finish in the top 4. I think Man City are still in the driver’s seat to win the title, even though they are now tied on points with Man U, mostly because of the class they have on their squad. Man United seems to be struggling with injuries especially in their midfield. Young, Nani, Rooney, Vidic and Cleverly are all currently out. I think this will be enough to push them out of the title race, even though they always seem to find a way to win anyway. Tottenham have just been playing extremely well, except against the top sides. They had big loses to the Manchester clubs early in the season. They followed this with a big win against a 9 man Liverpool. They barely eked out a 2-1 victory over Arsenal, drew to Chelsea and lost again to Man City. While they win against the lower sides, I think their form against the bigger sides will keep them from winning the title.

                The race for the last Champions League spot will be as interesting as the title race. Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle are all currently vying for that last spot. Chelsea hold the lead by 4 points over Liverpool and Arsenal and Newcastle are 6 points behind with a game in hand. None of these teams has taken advantage of each other’s lack of form in the Premier League. Arsenal have lost 3 straight. Wilshire is set to miss the rest of the season, and they have just been too inconsistent with their midfield play to get RVP the ball in the right areas. If RVP goes down, kiss Arsenal’s chances of a top 4 finish goodbye. They may not even finish in the top 7 if he goes down. Liverpool lost 2 before winning yesterday at Wolves. They have just not been able to get the wins at home. Between missed penalties, lack of form of the new signings, not taking their chances, and Suarez’s ban, they have just drawn too many games. Unless Carroll finds his form, they will struggle to get into the top 4. Newcastle will probably struggle for the next few games since Demba Ba is gone for the Africa Cup of Nations and Cabaye was just banned for 3 games. And then we have Chelsea, who have just been inconsistent this year and have failed to distance themselves from the rest of the pack. They seem to be the pick for the 4^th spot, not only because they currently hold it, but also because have a great blend of young talent with great veterans all throughout the pitch. I think it is just a matter of AVB getting the right formation and players on the pitch.

                I predict Man City to win the title, with Man United close behind. Tottenham will finish possibly around 5 points behind United and Chelsea will finish with that last Champions League spot but will be nowhere close to the top 3.