Can the Clippers replace Billups?

With the loss of Billups, the Clippers need to find a replacement. The in-house candidate is Randy Foye and the potential free agent signing is J.R. Smith. Can the Clippers replace Billups with Foye or with J.R. Smith?  Let’s start from the defensive perspective. Billups is shorter and weighs less than Smith and Foye. J.R. is a true shooting guard at 6ft 6 and 220 pounds. Foye is still in the combo guard area at 6ft 4 and 213, but is bigger than Billups who is 6ft 3, 202. Billups is also older and has lost some of his agility which means Foye and Smith are both physically capable of being better defenders than Billups. The question is, are they better defenders? While I might say Foye is as good as or better defensively than Billups, Smith just never seemed to be interested in defending. He seems to be stuck on the offensive side of the ball, but he does have the physical ability to be a good defender. He has the size and speed to cause problems on the defensive end, but you have to get him to want to play defensive. So for now Foye is an upgrade defensively and J.R. smith might help us from the size perspective but his defense is still extremely questionable.

From the offensive side of the ball, Foye and Smith are both more than capable of putting up the points that Billups did. They are not great facilitators of the ball, since they are more shooting guards and so we will ignore their assist numbers and passing ability. Foye has averaged up to 16 points a game in a season as a starter and Smith has averaged up to 15.4 points a game as a first option off of the bench. Billups is currently averaging 15 points a game so both these players are capable. All three of these players are capable 3-point shooters. While Billups is undoubtedly the best 3-point shooter of the lot, the other two aren’t far behind. Billups is at 38.9% for his career from beyond the arc, Smith is close behind at 37.1% and Foye is at 36%. So while you are losing a few percentage points from each player, they both are decent enoughthey should be decent replacement for the 3-point shooting Billups was capable of. The biggest downfall from Billups to each of these players statistically, is the ability to get to the line. Billups over his career has had a knack for getting fouled and getting the gimmie shots from the line. He has also shot close to 90% from the line in his career. Smith and Foye have gotten to the line 2.5 times a game over their career and have shot 75% and 85%, respectively, from the line. The disparity in free throw shooting is statistically where the biggest drop off is. Billups has been a very efficient player throughout his career; he has been able to score points without having to take too many shots. For his career he averages 15.5 points a game on 11.2 shots a game. While J.R. came close to this in one season, scoring 15.2 points a game on 11.7 shots, his career averages of 12.5 points on 10.3 shots show a lack of efficiency. Randy Foye is similar to Smith and has averaged 11.5 points a game on 10 shots a game in his career. In his 16.3 points a game season, his highest scoring season, he was taking 14 shots a game. Billups has had seasons where he has put up 17+ points a game while taking less than 12 shots a game. This season Billups was averaging 15 points a game on 11.4 shots. J.R. would have to replicate his one efficiently great year, out of his 7 years in the league, to replicate Billups without any statistical downside. Chances of Smith doing that are slim but Foye probably doesn’t have a chance to replicate this efficiency since he has never been extremely efficient.  

Offensively and defensively the Clippers may be able to get the production they need from a replacement. The intangibles are where Billups cannot be replaced: his knowledge of the game, his leadership and his ability to hit the big shots. He is Mr. Big Shot for a reason, and we have seen that this season with his outburst against Denver and his game winner against Dallas. His ability to work alongside Paul as second great floor general, which is what made the Clippers unique, will also be missed. The rest of the team will have to step up in his absence. I think the Clippers can cope with this loss, Foye and Smith are both capable replacements, but Billups will be sorely missed.