The Western Conference has turned into a battlefield. Every seed, from 3rd to 12th, is separated from the seed behind them, by 1 game or less. The Clippers in the 3rd seed, are only 3.5 games ahead of the 9th seeded Nuggets, whom they beat last night. The 6th seeded Rockets are only 3 games ahead of the 10th seeded Timberwolves. And the 8th seeded Blazers are only 4 games ahead of the 13th seeded Suns. This means that halfway through the season, almost every team in the west is still in contention for the playoffs. There are five teams in the Western Conference that will make the playoffs for sure. These teams are the Thunder, the Spurs, the Mavericks, the Clippers and the Lakers. Barring injury to their star players, these five teams will find a way to make the playoffs. That leaves 3 spots being fought for by 8 teams. Which of these 8 teams will find a way into the playoffs? Today let’s focus on spots 10 though 13.
Let’s start at the bottom with the Suns, who currently sit 4 games out of the 8th spot. While Nash and Gortat have both played well, the players around them have been inconsistent and just don’t have the talent some of the teams above them have. Jared Dudley has been playing well, scoring almost 12 points a game on 48% shooting, but he has been inconsistent. In his last 6 games he has scored 6, 11, 8, 25, 8 and 17. Frye is a streaky shooter and has not been able to get going. He is currently shooting 40.5% from the field and 33.8% from 3, which are 4% and 5% lower than his career averages. Age has caught up to Grant Hill and he is nowhere close to the same player he was even 5-6 years ago. His shooting is also down 7% from his 48.4% career average. I haven’t been watching the Suns, but it could be that he can’t get to the rim the same way he used to, which is the age old issue as players get older. The Suns don’t have the talent to make the playoff push and will not be in the playoffs this year.
Next are the Warriors. I have already done a post about the Warriors and everything that I said in that post still stands for this conversation. Please reference “Can the Warriors Be Contenders?” for a more in depth write-up about their team. The Warriors are one of the best offensive teams in the league, ranking in the top 5 in offensive efficiency. But they have an atrocious defense and are ranked in the bottom 5. Because of their lack of defense, I don’t think they will make the playoffs. However, a team with as much fire power as them could shoot their way into the playoffs in this shortened season. If Jackson can teach his players how to get even a little bit better at defense, I can see this team getting the 8th seed. But for now, they won’t make it.
The Jazz have had a major roster turnover from the team we used to know. Deron Williams and Boozer are both gone, as are Kirilenko and Okur. They have a very deep front line with Jefferson and Milsap starting, and Kanter and Favors coming off of the bench. But their point guard and small forward play has been very inconsistent. Raja Bell is a good defender and a great 3 point shooter. He is a very great 3 point shooter, currently at 43.4% for the year. This is not much of an anomaly considering he has shot over 40% from 3 for his career. Gordon Hayward has taken over the starting spot since AK47 left, and has done a decent job at the position. He has shown glimpses of the skills that made him a top 10 pick. His inconsistency seems to be more due to not being able to get involved in the offense. He is playing 28 minutes a game but is only taking 8 shots during that span. From his college stats we know he can score and rebound. He averaged 15.5 points, on 47% shooting, and 8 rebounds a game during his senior year. He is capable of becoming a good player but still has work to do. The major problem for the Jazz is at the point guard position. Devin Harris has struggled mightily since his All-Star year in New Jersey. His minutes have dropped down to about 26 a game, which is this first time since his 3rd year in the league that they’ve been under 30. His scoring drastically dropped, but what’s worse is that his assist numbers have dropped from 7 a game 2 years ago, to 4.6 this year. He has been much more hesitant this year to shoot the ball and doesn’t seem to have his confidence anymore. Unless he picks up his play this Jazz team will struggle to make the playoffs. He is the only true point guard on this team and the team’s fortunes rest with him. While the Jazz have been great at home, with some good wins against great teams, between the inconsistent Harris and the horrible road record, 3-11, the Jazz won’t make the playoffs this year.
The Timberwolves are the last team I will discuss in this post. Out of the teams I have talked about so far, the Wolves have the best chance of making a push for the playoffs. They have a talented team surrounding one of the best players in the league. Kevin Love is currently in the conversation for being the best power forward in the NBA. His current averages of 25 points and 14 rebounds a game are not even matched by Dwight Howard. What’s amazing is that he can score from anywhere on the court. He can shoot the 3’s, jumpers, and is great around the rim. He is the total package at the power forward spot. The T-Wolves have also finally solved their problem at center. Darko Milicic is a decent backup but is not a player you want starting at center. For his size he is a horrible rebounder. Nikola Pekovic has come in and made the spot his own. He is producing at levels that Darko never could. He is currently shooting over 58% from the field and averaging 12.5 points and 7.2 rebounds. While he is not a shot blocker like Darko, he weighs 15 more pounds than him and is only an inch shorter. With his physical attributes he should still be able to trouble most centers. Ricky Rubio is a great play maker and has done a great job of getting the ball to his teammates in the right places. His ability to make plays for his teammates more than makes up for his subpar shooting. As a point guard, his job is to get others shots, and that is exactly what he is doing. Thanks to Rubio, Ridnour can play off the ball much more. He has been shooting well and is a decent complement to Rubio. With Beasley, Barea and Williams, two of whom are top 2 draft picks, bringing the scoring punch off of the bench, the T-Wolves have a strong starting line-up with a very capable bench. They have some quality wins against playoff level teams, and also have had some very close losses against quality teams. If they learn to play together as the season goes on, they have a very good chance at making the playoffs. They may not make it this year, but after the experience they gain this year, and a full offseason together, they will make the playoffs next year.
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