The Western Conference has turned into a battlefield. Every seed, from 3rd to 12th, is separated from the seed behind them, by 1 game or less. The Clippers in the 3rd seed, are only 3.5 games ahead of the 9th seeded Nuggets, whom they beat last night. The 6th seeded Rockets are only 3 games ahead of the 10th seeded Timberwolves. And the 8th seeded Blazers are only 4 games ahead of the 13th seeded Suns. This means that halfway through the season, almost every team in the west is still in contention for the playoffs. There are five teams in the Western Conference that will make the playoffs for sure. These teams are the Thunder, the Spurs, the Mavericks, the Clippers and the Lakers. Barring injury to their star players, these five teams will find a way to make the playoffs. That leaves 3 spots being fought for by 8 teams. Which of these 8 teams will find a way into the playoffs? Today let’s focus on spots 9 and 8, Denver and Portland.
Currently seeded 9th and half a game behind the 8th spot, the Nuggets are in great position to take a playoff spot. They started off extremely hot, 14-5, and had a top 3 record until they succumbed to the injury bug. They lost 10 of 14 in February and have dropped to 18-17. Gallinari, Lawson, Fernandez and Nene have all missed huge chunks of time. Lawson, Fernandez and Nene should be back sooner than Gallinari, who has a chip fracture in his foot. These aren’t just part time players, three of them are starters and Fernandez is a spark of the bench. They should get healthy soon after the All-Star break. The Nuggets are a team that really scares me. The players in their second unit are all good enough to be starters in the NBA. They beat you with their depth and their all round team mentality. They have 7 players averaging over 10 points a game and another one close behind. They currently have the quickest pace in the NBA and love to push the ball in transition. They keep bringing players at you off of the bench and never let off the gas. When healthy, this team can play. Lawson is a great young point guard and can push the pace. He has been shooting over 47% and scoring 15.4 points a game, but more importantly he doesn’t turn the ball over very much. He averages 6.1 assists a game, and only 2.3 turnovers in 34 minutes a game. For reference, Chris Paul is averaging 2.3 turnovers currently as well, although in 2 more minutes. Afflalo is finally starting to get his game back. He did not play much during the offseason because he did not want to get injured and risk a contract since he was a free agent. Gallinari has been playing really well and is looking like the players the Knicks had hoped he’d be when they drafted him. Nene is a great power forward. He has always been a very consistent player and you know what he can give night in and night out. They last a good center, but Mozgov has shown some potential. Their bench is what sets them apart. With Andre Miller off of the bench they have an experienced vet who can command the floor. Harrington is a great scoring threat and having him off of the bench is a luxury not many teams have. In Fernandez and Brewer they have two more very capable players who can come in. Wilson Chandler is a restricted free agent and could sign with the Nuggets soon as well, having just returned from China. This would give them even more depth. The only problem is that they do not have a true superstar. This usually becomes a problem when the game is on the line and someone has to take over. They have so many players that can score, but no one who can really take over a game. Still even with this, I know that this team will make the playoffs. How far they get in the playoffs is up in the air. They have a deep team that can push anyone to the brink during the playoffs. They play hard and always hustle, but in crunch time you need someone to step up. Who will step up for Denver?
Portland was basically left for dead after news of Brandon Roy’s retirement and Greg Oden’s injuries, but somehow they have regrouped and have put a great team out on the floor. Aldridge has stepped up and taken the throne and has become the franchise star. Felton and Matthews are both good guards, but their problem this year has been consistency. When Portland got off to that hot start at the beginning of the year, it was because they had great play from their guards. Since then Matthews and Felton have both struggled. Gerald Wallace has always been a very talented player. With the Blazers he doesn’t have the same scoring burden he did in Charlotte, but he is still putting up decent numbers and finding ways to contribute. Marcus Camby has always been a great center. He can play defense and change shots, and brings in the rebounds by the bucket. He is not much of an offensive threat but he doesn’t have to be. Jamal Crawford is always a candidate for sixth man of the year. He brings a great punch off of the bench and has taken on more point guard duties than he had in Atlanta. He is a capable passer and a great scorer. He is a consistent scoring threat and will always find a way to score. Craig Smith and Kurt Thomas are both capable backups and are good players to have coming off of the bench. Then they have Batum. Batum is an extremely talented player but currently lacks the consistency he needs. He was recently moved into the starting line up ahead of Matthews and has shown some consistency but he needs to be able to sustain this run for a long period before he can shed the inconsistent tag. Portland have hoped that is play would help the guard play become more consistent. Portland has a great team and a deep team. They have the capabilities to push any team in the playoffs, but can they make the playoffs? Unless their guard play becomes more consistent, they won’t get a playoff seed. Except during their great start, they’ve struggled against playoff teams and are going to have a hard time getting a playoff seed unless they learn to beat the playoff level competition.
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