The Western Conference has turned into a battlefield. Every seed, from 3rd to 12th, is separated from the seed behind them, by 1 game or less. The Clippers in the 3rd seed, are only 3.5 games ahead of the 9th seeded Nuggets, whom they beat last night. The 6th seeded Rockets are only 3 games ahead of the 10th seeded Timberwolves. And the 8th seeded Blazers are only 4 games ahead of the 13th seeded Suns. This means that halfway through the season, almost every team in the west is still in contention for the playoffs. There are five teams in the Western Conference that will make the playoffs for sure. These teams are the Thunder, the Spurs, the Mavericks, the Clippers and the Lakers. Barring injury to their star players, these five teams will find a way to make the playoffs. That leaves 3 spots being fought for by 8 teams. Which of these 8 teams will find a way into the playoffs? Today let’s focus on spots 7 and 6, Memphis and Houston.
Memphis has a very strong team. They are currently the 7th seed, and are playing without one of their best players from last year, Zach Randolph, who is out injured. Last year they made the playoffs, without Rudy Gay, as the 8th seed, and proceeded to knock out the 1st seeded Spurs. While that was a huge upset, the Grizzlies match up very well with the Spurs and so it was not as big of a surprise. Sometimes certain teams just match up well with other teams. The Grizzlies have all the parts for a great team. They have a great starting line-up and some good players off of the bench. Marc Gasol is an All-Star and probably the 2nd best center in the west behind Bynum. Their weak point is currently at the power forward position, but when Randolph comes back, in him they have a 20-10 guy and that will allow them to move Speights back to the bench, where he can be more productive. Rudy Gay is a very good player and can play the small forward and power forward position. As a power forward I have seen him cause many problems for opposing power forwards due to his speed and athleticism. Tony Allen and Mike Conley form a great back court that can harass the best guards in the league. I saw Conley cause Chris Paul a lot of problems when they matched up. Conley is an above average point guard and has run the team very well. Neither of them are great scorers but that is not their role on the team. Tony Allen is there for his defense, while Mike Conley is a great defensive guard and has also run the team very well. Between the 2 of them, they average almost 4.5 steals a game. Conley is also capable of hitting shots from deep. This year he sits at 33% but he has a career average of 37.5%. The Grizzlies also have O.J. Mayo coming off the bench. He struggled last year after being moved to the bench, but this year, especially as of late, has played very well and has been a huge spark off of the bench for the Grizzlies. They have some other good role players who can come in for and spell their starters in Haddadi, Pondexter, and Arthur. The only thing working against the Grizzlies is that they are a very young team. While they gained experience from last year’s playoffs, they still have a ways to go. This is a team that relies on its defense to win games and that will allow them to make some noise in the playoffs. With a healthy team, the Grizzlies will be a very tough matchup for any team in the playoffs. They will make the playoffs. With how well they’ve played so far, without Randolph, they will be a very scary team when he comes back.
Houston’s team is very underrated. They have had some very impressive wins, and some very tough losses. Kevin McHale has done a great job with this team. They play very scrappy and it is hard not to root for them. They work very hard, and play every game with 100% intensity. They finally, temporarily, solved their problem at center. After having a 6ft 6 center in Hayes last year, they were able to land Dalembert for a 2 year deal in the offseason. He has been huge for their defense. In him they finally have a presence in the lane that they haven’t had since Yao Ming was healthy. Next to him they have Luis Scola, who is a very underrated player. Last year he averaged 18 and 9, and even though his production is down this year, he is still a hard working forward and can play in the post as well as hit the jumper outside. Part of his drop in production could be due to his unhappiness to being included in the nixed Chris Paul trade. Kevin Martin has been a very efficient shooter his entire career. He gets to the line at a career average of 6.6, and has averaged as high as 10 ft’s a game in a season. This year he hasn’t done that as much and has struggled for consistency. This could also be due to his inclusion in the same Chris Paul trade. The small forward position is probably their weak link. They have 2 small forwards with completely different strenghts Parsons is the defender and rebounder while Budinger is the scorer. Budinger has struggled with consistency though his career, and so the Rockets have opted to start Parsons and bring Budinger off the bench for more consistency in their starting lineup. Their bench is very strong as well. They bring a great point guard in Dragic off the bench along with another versatile player in Courtney Lee. I purposely left their starting point guard for last, because he will be the one who pushes them into the playoffs. Kyle Lowry is currently probably the most underrated point guard in the league. Since taking over the starting spot when Brooks got injured last year, he has been a borderline All-Star. When he first came into the league his jumper was a bit iffy, but since last year, he has had a reliable jump shot and has hit 37.5% from 3 over the last two seasons. He is the typical hardnosed Villanova product, and knows how to get into the lane and how to draw the foul. He is a great creator and his assist numbers have jumped from 4.5 two years ago to 7.6 this year. What sets him apart from most other point guards is that he is a great rebounder as well. For a 6 foot point guard to be averaging over 5 rebounds a game is amazing. Along with all his offensive skills, he is also a good, if undersized, defender. Lowry is one of the big reasons the Rockets are playing so well. With Martin struggling with consistency and a down year for Scola, Lowry will be why the Rockets make the playoffs. They have a lot of talent, and McHale has done a great job coaching them.
Now that I’ve gone through all the teams fighting for those last 3 spots, here are my predictions: The Rockets, Grizzlies and Nuggets will make the playoffs, with Portland, Utah, and Minnesota barely missing out.
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