Guggenheim Partners: The Money Behind Magic

Speaking for every Dodger fan, this is a great day. Frank McCourt and his mess are gone. Magic Johnson being the face of the new ownership is just another 5 layers added to the cake. It is wonderful news. Magic loves LA and I know he will do his best to bring our franchise back to the top. That being said, we must be cautious with our expectations. The majority of the money, it seems, is coming from Guggenheim Partners. For most of us unfamiliar with Guggenheim, their front page on their website explains all we need to know. It reads as follows:

Guggenheim Partners is a privately held global financial services firm with more than $125 billion in assets under management. We provide asset management, investment banking and capital markets services, insurance, institutional finance and investment advisory solutions to institutions, governments and agencies, corporations, investment advisors, family offices and individuals.

In other terms, this is a group out to make money. They don’t make bad investments and know what they’re getting into. They expect to make money from the Dodgers and probably already have a plan laid out on how to do that. No one, not even a firm with $125 billion in assets under management, would just invest $2 billion on the anything without knowing the return. A big source of revnue could be a huge new TV deal, or even a Dodgers TV station. The ammount of money this would bring in would be tremendous and could more than double the $2 billion value of the Dodgers. While we are now aware that the financial backers of the Dodgers have money, we can only hope that they will be willing to spend it. Having money and spending money are two very different things. It will become apparent within the next year or so, how much Guggenheim is willing to spend on team, and we must reserve our judgement until then.            

                 What does this all mean for the Dodgers? It means that they can finally pull themselves out of the hole that McCourt dug. They can start to move in the right direction. Having Magic Johnson as the face of the ownership will be huge, especially in getting free agents to come to LA. There is no bigger, more liked person in LA than Magic. He wants to be a part of the free agency recruitment process. With his business sense and likeable personality he can be a huge help in luring big name free agents to the big market that is LA. It also means that current GM, Ned Colletti, could be reaching the end of his road. While he has been able to get Kemp and Kershaw under contract, trade for Ethier, and make a few other good signings, he has also made a lot of major mistakes. Big contracts for Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre are a few of those mistakes. The ownership has already stated they will wait to see how this year goes before making any changes, but his leash will be very short.

                There is not much we really know at the moment. We can only hope that the new ownership brings back the glory days and takes us out of the dark cloud we have been under the last few years. We can’t let our expectations get too high, but we should rejoice. The end of McCourts reign over the Dodgers has finally ended. The sun is already starting to shine through those clouds. Only a matter of time before it’s a perfect southern California day again.

Fantasy MLB: Last year's injured become this years steal

Drafting a guy returning from a long term injury is always a risk. Drafting a pitcher returning from injury is especially risky. But like I stated in my previous article, late round picks are where the risk can pay off. I was lucky enough to get Clay Buchholz very late in my draft. While he missed a huge chunk of last year due to a stress fracture in his back, he is an ace worthy pitcher. In his first season of being a full time starting pitcher in the MLB, he had a 2.33 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 17 wins, 120 k’s in 173.2 innings, and 28 starts. In his injury shortened 2011 season, he went 16 games, 82.2 innings, with 60 k’s, 6 wins, a 3.48 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.29. While his 2011 numbers were nowhere as good as his 2010 numbers, they were still pretty good. If he is able to pitch a full season with the numbers close to or better than last years, he should be a great late round pick up. Adam Wainwright is another high risk, high reward player. If you can pick him up in the middle or late rounds of the draft, he is definitely worth a spot. When healthy, Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in baseball. In his 4 years as a starter, he has lowered his ERA every year, from 3.7 to 3.2 to 2.63 to 2.42. His WHIP has also greatly gone down since his first season, from 1.40 to 1.05. He has also increased his strike out in each of those 4 seasons. If healthy, he can give you 200+ strike outs, an ERA of 2.5 or better, a WHIP below 1.2, and potentially win close to 20 games. He is a very high reward pitcher, but coming off of an elbow injury, we don’t know if he will be able to last the full season, and his innings might be limited and he could be shut down later in the season to preserve for the playoffs. This could be a huge problem for fantasy teams in their fantasy playoffs. But you need to make the playoffs first to worry about them, so as a mid-late or late round pick, he is definitely a must get. Broxton is another guy returning from injury, but his risk goes even farther than his injury. With Soria out due to his elbow injury, the Royals have 3 potential closers: Broxton, Crow and Holland. Any three of these guys could take the closer role, which makes all of them risky picks. Broxton had a horrible year last year, giving up 8 runs in 12.2 innings. This in itself is too small of a sample size to judge. He just didn’t seem to have it. I would personally stay away from all three of these guys until one of them takes the closer role.

On the hitters side we have two major forces returning: Buster Posey and Kendrys Morales. Posey is already in spring training and is having his work load increased to get ready for opening day. He is the less risky of the two, and so he will not fall as low in the draft. He is a great player and at catcher, can make a huge difference for your team. In 108 games in his first real year, he hit .304, with 18 homeruns, 67 RBIs, and 58 runs. For a catcher these numbers stretched out over a full season would be good production, but he did it in 2/3rds of a season. Last year before his injury, in 45 games, he hit .284, with 4 homeruns, 21 RBIs and 17 runs. This expanded over a full season would be around 17-18 homeruns, 92 RBIs, and 74 runs. If he can produce like this, he would be a worthy risk in the middle of the draft. Being able to get a catcher than can produce anything late in the draft is hard enough and if he falls due to the uncertainty with how he will respond to injury, he is a very worthy mid to late round pickup. Morales is a very risky pick. He was supposed to return last season from his broken leg, but missed the full season, and has missed close to 2 seasons because of it. He is a player capable of hitting over .300, hitting 30+ homeruns, knocking in over 10 RBIs and scoring 80+ runs. The problem is that, he still has only recently returned to playing. While he has looked good so far in spring training, spring training numbers are never to be trusted. Most pitchers struggle with their command, and hitters can capitalize on this, while hitters are also trying to regain their swing and form. His broken leg could cause a loss of power, which would mean lower numbers for him. If he falls late into the draft, you should take him. But considering he has missed almost 2 seasons, the risk will be very high.

Some tips for Fantasy Baseball

With baseball season around the corner, many of you are getting ready to draft your teams. There are a few things to keep in mind while drafting that can make a difference in your season. The first thing is that stolen bases are a rare commodity in fantasy baseball. While one good base stealer can help you win that category here and there, if you have the chance to draft a couple guys who can steal bases week in and week out, you can secure that category permanently. There are so few guys capable of stealing enough bases to make a difference, that if you can grab 2-3 of them, that category is set. A lot of these base stealers however, do little other than steal bases. Many of them are leadoff hitters and hit for average, some close to .300, but most will not give you power or RBI’s. They may help in the runs scored category, but that is entirely dependent on their team. If their team has a weak lineup, then they really do become more specialized. This is where your drafting strategy comes into play.  Part of your drafting strategy should be to grab a top producing 2^nd baseman or a top shortstop. These are two of the worst positions in terms of production. The statistical fall off from a top tier middle infielder to a middle tier middle infielder is much bigger than those of the corner infielders and outfielders. There are so few middle infielders capable of producing huge numbers that if you can take one of them, your team will always have an advantage. A Tulowitzki or Robinson Cano type player can make your team a championship contender. You must grab one of these top middle infielders in the draft. Now if you grab Robinson Cano you can wait until later to grab a middle or even lower tier shortstop. A player like Dee Gordon grabbed lower in the draft could prove to be a great pickup due to his high batting average and his base stealing capability. He also has the potential to score many runs due to Ethier and Kemp hitting close behind him.

                Deciding when to take pitchers can be very difficult. I would recommend taking a top tier closer early in the draft. The problem with the closer position is that when you get to the lower tier closers, they have the potential to lose their closing position. A closer like Sergio Santos, Kyle Farnsworth, or Javy Guerra may start out as the closer, but has a chance of losing his position. At that point they lose all worth because they are not big strike out guys, and now are not getting you saves. Someone like Rivera is an established closer and you know he will not lose his spot. Even Marmol with his high era has a use if he loses his closer spot due to his high strike out numbers. This is why it is important to take a closer when you see the opportunity earlier in the draft rather than later. Starting pitchers are a different story. Personally I like to take 1-2 top pitchers early in the draft to at least give myself some peace of mind. Even with one great pitcher and a few middle or upper middle tier pitchers, you pitching rotation can be very solid. Last season my only true ace was Gallardo. After him I had guys like Romero, Anibal Sanchez, Ervin Santana, and Jaime Garcia. While these are not top tier pitchers they still got the job done and I was able to draft many of the hitter I wanted first without worrying about pitching. I also had Bucholz and Brett Anderson, but both of these guys I was able to draft in the middle and both ended up injured and I still ended up with the title. While these are not top tier pitchers they still got the job done and I was able to draft many of the hitter I wanted first without worrying about pitching. Picking pitchers changing teams is also very risky. A fly ball pitcher switching from a pitchers park to Coors, could spell trouble. A pitcher changing from the NL to the AL could also have problems due to the DH rule. Picking established pitchers, staying on their same team, with no history of health problems is usually the best way to go. All other pitchers can be held off until later in the draft, where a risky pick won’t hurt you as much.

                Always keep your eye on the waiver wire. Last year I picked up Freddy Freeman, Brandon Beachy, Eric Hosmer, Mark Trumbo and countless other players that led me to my title. If a rookie is playing well late into the season, don’t be hesitant to jump on his bandwagon. They may go through a slump, but that’s just how baseball works. The end result could lead you to the top. There is nothing worse than an unproductive player ruining your stats and taking up space. Don’t jump too fast, but don’t wait too long. I know that it is a vague statement but if you followed a player all year, or had him on your team for multiple years, you know better than anyone if he is worth keeping. Trust yourself and good luck.

New Orleans in trouble

To the Hornets fans at the Clippers game last night, you are a disgrace. Hearing the cheering when Jason Smith body checked Blake Griffin was one of the most disgusting sports moments I have ever witnessed. If Blake had already started his jump when that happened, he could have been seriously injured. A potential career damaging injury, a season ending injury, or any injury at all is nothing to cheer about. The Clippers had not flagrantly fouled the Hornets before; this was not retaliation for a previous hit. This was just disgusting behavior by a player, and even more disgusting behavior by the fans. For an act like that, you deserved to lose Chris Paul. Sometimes we let our emotions get the best of us, but this was just a dirty play. If Smith is not suspended for a long time because of this, justice will not have been served.

Why should we be surprised that this happened in New Orleans? Only weeks after the release of bounty gate, the Hornets pull a similar tactic, except this was not for money. The Saints had been warned for the last THREE years. They had been told to cease their bounty program, and they did not. No coach, GM, or any management personnel in that franchise can plead innocence. Peyton is the head coach and must have been informed by the owner and GM about what Greg Williams was doing. There is no way he had no idea, especially after the leagues initial warnings. This is why the suspensions, while harsh, are just. Peyton is losing one year, the GM is losing 8 games, Greg Williams could potentially lose his career, but this is all justified. The Saints were out to injure other players. These potentially injured players entire lives would be thrown into chaos. A career ending injury would lead to financial problems, career changes, potential long term or permanent physical or mental damage. If a clean hard play leads to an injury, then so be it. These players understand the dangers of playing football. However, this does not include having opposing players trying to intentionally end their careers. This is unacceptable. For all the players who could have potentially lost their careers to this bounty program, this year of suspensions is just. The punishment fits the crime.

Tebow to the Jets

Tebowmania is about to hit the Big Apple. Can he survive there? Jeremy Lin found his way into the hearts of New Yorkers, can Tebow follow in his path? There is only one similarity between these two; they are both extremely religious and that is where the similarities end. Tebow played at a powerhouse sports college while Lin did not. Tebow was drafted in the first round, Lin was undrafted. Tebow had fans chanting for him to play before he got his chance, Jeremy Lin was a complete unknown to most fans. And the biggest difference, Jeremy Lin is actually a pretty good NBA player, while Tebow is arguably one of the worst QB’s in the NFL. In a league where teams are built on passing the ball, Tebow ranked 33^rd in completion percentage and there are only 32 teams in the NFL.

You can say all you want about how Tebow got the Broncos to the playoffs and beat the Steelers, but the truth is that the Broncos made the playoffs despite Tebow, not because of him. He barely came out on top against a horrible Dolphins team. Barely beat a Chicago team missing its starting quarterback and running back. Barely beat a Kansas City team missing key parts on both sides and then was almost SHUT OUT against the same Kansas City team. The list goes on and on, but in the end it boils down to this, the Broncos defense kept them in the game, and a few things went Tebow’s way and they won, mostly on late field goals. In the end Tebow is a great running quarterback, but a horrible throwing quarterback, and that is unacceptable in this league.

If it is true that Tebow had a choice between the Jets and the Jags, why did he choose the Jets? The Jags are closer to his home and he would have fans everywhere. He would also have a better chance of getting the starting quarterback job since the incumbent starter, Gabbert, had a subpar rookie year last year. So why go to the Jets, with a more established quarterback, in a city farther away from home, and into the spotlight? Tebow doesn’t seem like the type of person to want to be in the spotlight. So what is it that drew him to New York?  It could be his need to prove himself in the spotlight, but he could do that in Jacksonville since he would have a better chance at being the starter. In all honesty I have no idea, and I don’t think anyone does except Tebow.

What does Tebow bring the Jets? He brings a change of pace quarterback. Ever heard of that before? I think this is the first time a quarterback can be used as a change of style in the middle of the game. Similar to how there are power running backs that come in during short yardage, Tebow is the quarterback who can make a play to get his team a few yards. It’s a horrible situation for Mark Sanchez. If he plays inconsistently like he has been so far in his career, fans might to start call for Tebow. Now I don’t think Rex Ryan would be as inclined to play Tebow as Broncos were, nor do I think the New York fans are going to be as enamored with Tebow as the Denver fans were, but that won’t stop the calls for Tebow. Since he has won games, regardless of how those games were really won or who they were against, fans will want him in if their team is not winning. Management always likes competition for places, and while players usually don’t like competition, sometimes it helps to push them to the top. I hope this is the case for Sanchez. If he feels Tebow breathing down his neck maybe it will help him to achieve his potential. Hopefully this is the reason the Jets brought in Tebow, because other than that, I don’t think he’s worth much.

Peyton Manning is a... Bronco?

Peyton Manning signed a 5 year $96 million contract with the Denver Broncos this week, surprising many people. If you had told me a month ago that Manning would be a Bronco, I would probably call it ridiculous and laugh. There are a few reasons I can think of that make this decision seem less surprising. The first reason is Manning’s desire to stay in the AFC. After being in the AFC for his entire career, Manning has developed a familiarity with the defenses that each team brings. Going to the NFC would mean that he would have to learn a whole new set of team defenses that he rarely faced before. At this stage in his career, it doesn’t make sense for him to do that. This was probably one of the reasons he chose not to go to the 49ers. The next reason could have something to do with the fact that the AFC West is considerably weaker than most of the other divisions. Going to the Titans would have meant having to play a great up and coming Houston Texans team, and also playing his former team twice a year. Going to the Dolphins would have meant playing the Patriots and the Jets twice a year. In the AFC West, Kansas City is an unknown going into the new season. They could play like they did in their 10-6 playoff season 2 years ago, or they could be the sub .500 team from last year. The Raiders are always poised to be a good team, but never end up amounting to much. The only team that can be a serious threat is the Chargers, but even they have the potential to be horrible or great and we won’t know until the season ends. The final reason is John Elway. Elway is a Hall of Fame quarterback and is the only person who can relate to Manning. He knows what Manning will need to win and that is probably one of the biggest reasons Peyton chose the Broncos. Having someone in upper management understand what you want and need will lead to fewer problems in the future. Manning can trust Elway and know that he will work to build a team that can win a championship. Peyton is running out of time and he can’t waste it waiting on promises management makes to him. Denver has a lot of the parts that make up a championship caliber team. He trusts Elway will deliver the rest and this is why he went to Denver.

It's almost time for real baseball, can the Dodgers play into October?

Baseball season is finally here. Spring training is in full swing and teams are getting ready for the rigors of the regular season. This year with the added wild card spot in each league, more teams will have hope of making the playoffs. Do the Dodgers have what it takes to be one of these playoff teams?

                After two seasons of mediocrity, something will have to change. In 2010, the Dodgers finished under .500 for the second time since 2000. Last season they at least finished over .500, but still just barely. But there was a glimmer of hope from the end of the season. The Dodgers finished the season extremely strong with a 45-27 record. They will have to be more like the team that finished the season, than the team that had them 15 games under .500. The biggest thing that changed was that the team went from being only Kemp and Kershaw, to them finally have players step up. James Loney had a horrific first half of the season, but finished the season great. One of the reasons for this was that he changed his swing and his approach. He found a new swing which helped keep him from opening up prematurely. He also started to pull the ball more, which led to his increase in power numbers. While this only brought his numbers up to around his career, even this was an accomplishment given how bad he was hitting previously. Besides Loney, Ted Lilly also started to pitch better. He finished the season with a sub 3-era in his final 11. Over these 11 starts, he brought era down from 5.08 to 3.97. He never gave up more than 3 runs, and gave up 2 or less earned runs in 9 of those 11 starts.

Juan Rivera was another helpful addition. In 62 games with the Dodgers, he hit .274 with 48 rbis. The Dodgers finally found some sort of protection for Kemp, and finally had someone who could actually hit behind him. Ethier had a very down year. Aside from the 30 game hit streak at the beginning of the season, he did not produce. I’m hoping it was because of his knee, which was bothersome enough to shut him down at the end of the season. He is also only signed a one year contract this offseason and has a lot to prove if he wants to get a big contract. Ethier wasn’t the only one having a down year. Juan Uribe had a horrific year. He hit .204 with 4 homeruns and 28 rbis in close to half a season. He was disrupted by injuries all season and never hit his stride. He is capable of hitting .250 and banging in 20+ homers in a season, and that’s what we need out of him. He came back into spring training this year in great shape and that can hopefully help his production. Dee Gordon’s arrival in the big leagues for his second stint was another factor in the Dodgers push at the end of the season. He hit .304 from the leadoff spot, and stole 24 bases, at a success rate of 77%, in only 56 games. He may not have any power, but a shortstop, leadoff hitter capable of hitting over .300 and stealing 50+ bases makes for a very valuable player.

Judging from the end of the season last year, the Dodgers are fully capable of making a run into the playoffs. They have the reigning NL Cy Young winner and the MVP runner-up to set the tone for the rest of the team. The Dodgers need their underachievers to step up, especially offensively. The Dodgers were in the top 5 in runs allowed last year, but 9^th in runs scored. They need Loney, Uribe, and Ethier to step up this season. They need to get the same production from Kemp, Rivera and Gordon, and they need to find production from the catcher and second baseman. I believe this season will once again rest on how the offense produces. They may have lost Kuroda to free agency, and Rubby De La Rosa to injury, from their last years starting pitching staff but the addition of Harang and Capuano, should be enough to make up for this. Their bull-pen should once again be dominant. Jansen and Guerra are an extremely dominant setup and closer duo. Macdougal and Gurrier should be able to hold the fort in the innings leading up to the 8^th. The Dodgers have more good pitchers than most teams, and many of them are still very young and make for a bright future. It’s their offensive that needs help.  

There are a lot of ifs that need to happen for the Dodgers to win the World Series, but they should be able to challenge for a playoff spot and finally get out of their lull in mediocrity if even half of these ifs are satisfied.

Where should Manning go?

Where will Peyton Manning go? That question has been talked about more than anything else going on in sports for the last week, and for good reason. A surefire hall of fame quarterback is a free agent. He could change a franchise by signing with them. There are currently 4 teams where he could end up, Denver, Miami, Tennessee, or Arizona. Reports say Manning is choosing between the Broncos and the Titans, but reports have been wrong before and so I will consider the Dolphins and Cardinals as well. So,which of these is the best fit?

Manning has to go somewhere that can contend the second he signs his contract. He is too old to waste the last few years of his career waiting for a team to find the right pieces. He also needs to go somewhere where he can be protected. With his neck injury, how many hits can he really take? Arizona and Miami are two of the worst teams in the league in allowing quarterback sacks, they rank 2^nd and 3^rd with 54 and 52 sacks allowed, respectively. Manning cannot afford to be hit that many times in a season. Granted some of those sacks may be the quarterbacks fault for holding onto the ball too long, a mistake we know Manning will rarely make. However it is still too many sacks for a 35 year old, coming off of 3 neck surgeries, to take. Denver was also ranked 9^th worst in sacks allowed, with 42. Although in this case, I think we can put a lot of the blame on Tebow for not being a great quarterback (I had to take a Tebow shot somewhere, right?). This is where the Titans are a cut above the rest; they allowed the 2^rd fewest quarterback sacks in the league, with 24. This team is built to protect quarterback, even though Chris Johnson probably wishes it could cut him some lanes as well, but that’s a different story.

The Dolphins just gave away their top receiver for basically nothing; Brandon Marshall was traded to Chicago for two 3^rd round picks. Unless the Dolphins can get another great wide receiver, I don’t see any reason why Miami would be an option anymore. If they want a top wide receiver to entice Mannnig, the only ones left on the market worth talking about are Mike Wallace and Brandon Lloyd, so they better hurry and get one of them. Even though Miami allowed the 6^th fewest points per game, because of the Brandon Marshall trade and the number of sacks they allowed, I think Miami is out of the running.

Arizona has Larry Fitzgerlad, one of the best receivers in the league, an up and coming receiver in Early Doucet, and a 1000-yard running back in Beanie Wells. They definitely have the offensive weapons to be a factor, but their defense and offensive line aren’t good enough. They were ranked 17^th in points allowed per game, which isn’t good enough, and as stated before, they allowed the 2^nd more sacks in the NFL. Manning can’t afford to get hit over 3 times a game, and needs a defense that can step up in the playoffs. Neither of these go in Arizona’s favor, and I don’t think he will sign there.

Denver has some great, but underrated receivers, mostly due to the fact that Tim Tebow rarely threw to any of them. With Macgahee and Moreno they have a vulture and an explosive back who can catch the ball. In Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas they have receiver who can not only catch the ball, but have great yards after catch ability. But their defense was ranked 24^th in points allowed, 20^th in yard per game allowed, and they also allowed the 9^th most sacks in the league. Their defensive showing against the top offenses in the league is proof that their defense is not ready to be a great factor yet and will not be able to step up in the playoffs.

That leaves Tennessee. This is where Manning should end up. First off, they allowed the 2^nd fewest sacks in the league. This point cannot be overstated. Manning needs protection, he can’t afford to be hit with his recent injuries. Secondly, the Titans were 8^th in points allowed per game. Although they were 18^th in yards allowed per game, the disparity comes because of their red zone defense. While they may allow a lot of yards, they allowed the 9^th fewest red-zone TD’s. Offensively the Titans have Nate Washington, Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt. They also have some young guys who have the potential to be decent players in the NFL. If Britt can stay healthy, which is big if, this has the makings of a championship team.  The big play potential on offense, along with the great defense gives the Titans the best chance of being a championship team with Manning. This is where he can be protected, this is where the offensive weapons are, this is where the defense can step up, and this is where he can seamlessly step in and bring home the title.

To drop, or not to drop...

With fantasy basketball playoffs coming up, or already started for some, a short term injury to a star player can make for a very tough decision. Currently on one of my teams, Lowry and Okafor are both out. Luckily Deng came back last night, but with his injury he could be out at anytime. In my other league, Lowry is out and Hawes is on limited minutes. I held onto Hawes through his entire injury because I knew with a healthy Hawes my team could be deadly. Going into the last two weeks, even with Hawes on the bench, my team is 2^nd. I don’t need him to win against most teams, but I will need him against the top seeds, which is why I have not dropped him. In the other league, with Okafor out for an extended period of time, I still have the 2^nd best record in the league. So once again, my team is capable of winning without him, but I need him to beat the top seeds in the playoffs. I need them to win, and therefore I refuse to drop them, yet.

Going into the playoffs, should you still hang onto these players? The answer to this is yet another set of questions. What is your overall fantasy goal? Can your team get through a few weeks of knockouts until the injured player returns? And the biggest question, without this player, can you still challenge for the title? I refuse to drop Lowry, because I know without him, I have no chance of knocking off the 1^st seed. Whether he comes back in 2 weeks, which I hope, or 4 weeks, I need him to win. If I drop him, and someone else decides to pick him up and take a chance on him, I’m in trouble. My goal is not to get as far into the playoffs as possible, it is to win the title. If your goal is different than this, you might consider dropping your injured player. But for most fantasy sports owners, the goal is to win. A player like Okafor is a possible drop because, while replacing a 10-10 guy is difficult, it is still possible to find a player with production close to that. A player like Lowry is impossible to replace, unless you play in a very small league. In the end, the decision is yours. You must do what is in your best interest, and it all depends on what your goals are. In situations like this, there is no right decision. Unless you win, you will always look back and wonder if you made the right choice. Go with your gut. It hasn’t let you down yet, right?

The Clippers Defensive Problem

I have been extremely disappointed with the way the Clippers have been defending the perimeter. Overall the Clippers allow 43.9% from the field, which is in the top 12. But the problem lies in their defense of the 3 ball. Case and point, the Clippers currently allow opponents to shoot 37.5% from 3, which is second last in the league, only the Nets allow a higher percentage at 38.5%. So why is there such a disparity between their ranking in their opponent’s 3pt% and fg%? It can be summed up in one word. Collapsing.

                Through the entire Nets game, the Spurs game, the Suns game and basically every game this season, the Clippers have dared teams to beat them for 3point land, and they have. Our guards are having a tough time keeping their defensive duties in front of them. Because of this, you have other defenders collapse onto the guy. Sometimes it is the big men, other times the wing players. This is where the problem is. The wing players should NEVER leave a 3 point shooter open. Every time it has happened, the shooter has made the Clippers pay. It is not a strategy that has worked and makes no sense as to why coach Vinny Del Negro has not fixed or changed it. The players have not rotated on defense when wing defenders have collapsed, and I would never suggest collapsing off of a shooter, especially on a team filled with shooters. The ball can travel faster than the player. Once you fall behind on a rotation, you are in trouble. It is Del Negro’s job to fix this defensive problem. If I can spot out where the issues lies, then as a coach he should already know this and be working to fix it, but it just seems to be getting worse as the season goes on. Besides just being worth more point wise, the 3 ball is a great way for teams to gain momentum, get the crowd involved, and get their players riled up. With the athletic big men the Clippers have, Kenyon Martin, DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin, I would rather just have them collapse and give up a contested shot in the lane, rather than giving up an open 3.

                The last play of the game against the Nets last night was one of the worst, if not THE worst, final play defense I have ever seen in my life. Apparently it was supposed to be a double team on Deron Williams. But when Williams got the ball in the center of the court, doubling teaming him makes NO sense what so ever. In the center of the court he has full court vision, and can easily make a pass to teammate on the left or on the right, both of which are great 3 point shooters. Why would you leave a great 3 point shooter open to beat you? I can live with a pull up, contested, 3 pointer by Williams to win it. Or even a tough shot by him in the lane to tie it. I can even live with the big men in the paint collapsing onto him and leaving their guy in the lane open, because they can only tie with a 2. Giving an NBA player an open 3 pointer is basically a death sentence.

                If Vinny Del Negro, does not fix this defensive problem, the Clippers are going to be in for a hell of a season. They will continue to get beat from behind the arc, and it will lead to an early playoff exit. Either Vinny needs to fix the rotation problem, change the defensive strategy, or he needs to be fired. But we all know Donald Sterling is stingy on his money, so let’s hope that Vinny fixes the problem.

End of an era

We knew this was coming, but we refused to believe it. Thinking about seeing Manning in anything other than a Colts jersey seems wrong. Up until a few weeks ago, Irsay and Manning were taking shots at each other in public. Things seemed bad, and destined to end. Manning didn’t want to leave Indianapollis, Irsay didn’t want him to leave, but knew that they needed to move forward. Manning had made it clear that a quarterback taken first in the draft had to play, and shouldn’t sit on the bench. That left two options. Option 1, draft Luck and let Manning go. Option 2, keep Manning and don’t draft a quarterback. In the end, Indy had to move on and both Manning and Irsay knew this. This is why they attacked each other in public. Not because they hated each other, but because they knew they were going to have to let go. In their press conference today, there was not a dry eye in the room. Manning and Irsay both struggled to keep their emotions in check. This was never an easy decision. A 22 year old rookie quarterback coming to play for the youngest owner at 37, their paths were connected. Manning made this franchise, it is his franchise.

There was a rare sequence of events that had to happen for the Colts and Manning to be in this situation. Considering Manning hadn’t missed a game in his career before this, for him to get injured and be out a full season was very rare. From here, the Colts had to finish with the worst record in the NFL. They were one win away from finishing with the 2^nd pick, and were lucky they owned all “tiebreakers” with the Rams. And the most interesting event had to happen the year before. Andrew Luck had to decide to stay at Stanford another year. Somehow, I don’t see anything like this happening again. In the end, the Colts couldn’t afford to give Manning $28 million and keep Andrew Luck under the salary cap. They have too many holes in their team and they need to start addressing them. While many Colts fans may not be happy with the decision to let Manning go but it is the right decision, even though they may struggle for a few years.

Where will Peyton go now? The teams being thrown around are the Redskins, the Jets, the Dolphins and the Broncos. He could also pull a Favre and go to someone like the Titans, who are the Colts divison rivals. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go anywhere apart from the Patriots, Giants, Saints and Pacers, who already have star quarterbacks. Manning has to go somewhere that already has everything except a quarterback. At his age he can’t wait for a team to build around him. The Titans and Dolphins make the most sense. They have a good defense already in place, along with weapons on offense. Somehow, I don’t see Manning going to a division rival like Favre did, and so Miami makes the most sense. With Brandon Marshall, Devone Bess, Reggie Bush, an up and coming Daniel Thomas, and a solid defense, Manning could put this team over the top. Washington has Gaffney, Fred Davis, Santana Moss and Roy Helu, but I don’t feel they have the same potential as the Dolphins, largely due to their subpar defense. Regardless, where ever Manning ends up, he will make a difference. Colts fan should and will remember him for everything he did for them, but it is time to move on.14 years, 1 super bowl win, 4 MVP’s and 200 consecutive starts, the Manning era in Indianapolis is over.

It is all in the intent..

Almost everyone I have talked with agrees that paying bounties for injuring opponents is unsportsmanlike. However, I had one person say they have no problem with it, because they are playing football. I have to say I partially agree with this. Watching football, I always like to see the hard hits, the intensity on defense and the intent to take down the opposing player. What I don’t like are the helmet to helmet hits, the after the play attacks (see Ndamakung Suh), and the intent to injure. Aiming to ruin someone’s career is something that should never be allowed. I have seen this happen in European soccer as well, with the leg breaking slide tackles. Arsenal have had the worst luck with these type of tackles, with both Eduardo and Ramsey suffering bad injures and missing the season because of them. Both of them are back and are still playing, although Eduardo is not with Arsenal anymore, but other players have not been so lucky. I’ve seen broken legs in baseball from players sliding into the middle infielders at 2^nd base. It’s not about if you hurt somebody, it’s what is your intent. Making a hard slide into second base is just a good baseball play. Tackling a wide receiver on a crossing route is also just a good play. These types of plays can lead to injures, but the players were only making good hard efforts. Going into that slide, or that tackle, with the intent to injure the opposing player is where it all goes wrong. The problem is how can you tell if the intent is to make a play, or to injure? The truth is you can’t. The only person that would really know is the guy making the play.

The NFL is going to come down hard on the Saints for this scandal. From what I have heard, the Saints were previously warned about this and still did not stop. My first thought is why did the NFL even give them a second chance before issuing a punishment? Why not just stop it when they first caught the Saints? It’s the job of the NFL to protect its players, and in this case, it did not do its job. By letting the Saints continue, and not stamping out this activity at the beginning, the NFL allowed the Saints to get away with attempting to injure other players. On the other hand, how many people think that the Saints are the only ones giving bounties for injuring opposing players? No one?  Exactly. Somehow, I don’t believe that this is only happening in New Orleans. There is no way the other teams are not giving similar bounties, they are probably just doing a better job of hiding it, possibly in end of year player bonuses. Sports become competitive. Sometimes you throw at a batter, or you slide tackle a player, or commit a hard foul on a guy with the intent to send a message that you won’t be pushed around, that you won’t let them get away with what they are doing, and that is completely fine. Competition breeds intensity and sometimes anger. But it’s not ok to try to injure someone. How would you feel if you injured someone, cost them their career, their job, and millions of dollars? Now how would you feel if it happened to you? It’s all about the intent.

UCLA has issues...doesn't every school?

UPDATE: Reeves went on ESPN LA today and denied all the individual accusations written aganist him in the article. It's hard to tell if he is lying or not, but he says his former teammates have talked to him and supported him. If the allegations against him are not true, then what is the point of the article? There had to be something going on that George Dohrmann, the writter, saw that warranted the article. The first though is that either Reeves is lying or Dohrmann is lying. But once you think about it, you realize that the truth is probably just somewhere in between. 

If you haven’t read the SI article about UCLA basketball and their discipline and drug problem, I suggest you read it. It’s a great piece and it explains a great deal about what is happening with their basketball team. Being a UCLA Alum, I had noticed some issues, but I never though it went this far. The sense of entitlement that comes with being the best player on your high school team, and being a high prospect, is not what you want from your players. I would take a bunch of hard working guys with less talent than guys with more talent without a work ethic. What I’ve never understood is why these guys with such huge talent would waste it by not working hard. That is why I respect Kobe so much. I’m a long time Clippers fan and I hate the Lakers, but Kobe Bryant is always working at his game. He is one of the best players in the NBA and is still working everyday to get better. This is what college kids should strive to do, but these UCLA players did not.

                Ben Howland should have done a better job of controlling the talent on his team. While he was probably scared that if he was too hard on them they would leave for the draft or another school, he shouldn’t be worried about that. The players that should stay at the program are the ones who want to be there, and who are willing to work hard to get better. After hearing everything that Reeves Nelson did while at UCLA, I’m glad they kicked him off. They should have done it sooner. To let someone like that stay on the team for so long just because he is producing is horrible for the rest of the team. Him and Howland’s treatment of his stars caused us to love multiple talented player who are now starring on RANKED teams. Two of UCLA’s former players who transferred out during this era are now stars at #17 UNLV.  Mike Moser is averaging a double-double with 13.9 points and 10.9 rebounds, which ranks him 9^th in the nation in rebounds per game, while Chase Stanback is their second leading scorer at 13.4 points. Drew Gordon is playing for New Mexico, who are also having a good year. While unranked, they have beaten UNLV and San Diego State, who are both ranked. Gordon is also ranked 6^th in the nation in rebounding with 10.9 per game, while adding in 12.6 points to average a double-double as well. How different would UCLA be with these players still on their team?

I don’t blame Ben Howland for the talent he missed and did not recruit, because his track record of recruiting is undeniably great. Holiday, Westbrook, Love, Collison, Ariza, and Afflalo are all starters in the NBA. Westbrook and Love are both All-Stars as well. There are also many other players from his tenure still contributing in the NBA. While he did miss some recruiting talent, it happens. However, I do blame him for allowing his players to get away with this type of attitude. No coach should ever let their star players go this far. All star players get some sort of preferential treatment, however, there is a limit and that limit was crossed over tenfold. The type of attitude Nelson showed during practice should never be allowed. Now that that is out of the way, without Nelson I feel that all the other problems that were described in the article are not just at UCLA. 30 players were arrested during Urban Meyer’s tenure at Florida, but no one talked about that because they were winning. College kids will always be naïve and immature, they will want to party and have fun. This is nothing new and you can’t put the blame on the players for wanting to enjoy their college experience. They are kids, and we can’t treat them like more than that just because they are athletes.  However, because they are athletes they are held to a higher standard due to the national attention they receive. In the end, I don’t care what they do during their off day as long as it’s within reason, and as long as they step on court, whether during practice or a game, and give it their all.

This UCLA ‘scandal’ is nothing new. College players, college coaches, and college programs get in trouble all the time. Ohio State had their investment scandal, John Calipari had the Derrick Rose SAT scandal and the Marcus Camby scandal, USC had their Reggie Bush and O.J. Mayo scandals. These things happen in college. To many of these coaches and programs, winning means everything. To many of these players, college is just a stepping stone to the pros. With those sort of attitudes and all the rules the NCAA has, these scandals are bound to happen. So in the big picture, this UCLA ‘scandal’ isn’t really a scandal at all. It just shows that Ben Howland let his star players take control. Once again this is nothing new. It happened with Cleveland and Lebron James. He controlled their franchise and did what he wanted when he wanted and then left. The only difference? The Cavs were making the playoffs and always challenging for the title. Winning cures everything.

Having the talent and work ethic to be great together, is rare for many college players. Prospects have become entitled, and expect to run over everyone at the college level. The internet and national TV attention has led to this. In this era anyone can see the prospects, rank them and then these kids get press conferences for their decisions. They are kids and it is getting to their heads. Westbrook, Collison, and Love are all recent examples of what Ben Howland can do with talented hard workers. Westbrook and Collision both were not high prospects. Kevin Love was but he was a diamond in the rough with his work ethic, basketball IQ and talent.

 I don’t see the need to fire Ben Howland. He has admitted he made mistakes and hopefully won’t let it happen again. He has led UCLA to three consecutive final fours, and while past achievements are not something you should live on, he has earned a little bit of leeway. UCLA is UCLA and they will find a way back to the NCAA Basketball summit. The question is, how long will it take?