Drafting a guy returning from a long term injury is always a risk. Drafting a pitcher returning from injury is especially risky. But like I stated in my previous article, late round picks are where the risk can pay off. I was lucky enough to get Clay Buchholz very late in my draft. While he missed a huge chunk of last year due to a stress fracture in his back, he is an ace worthy pitcher. In his first season of being a full time starting pitcher in the MLB, he had a 2.33 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 17 wins, 120 k’s in 173.2 innings, and 28 starts. In his injury shortened 2011 season, he went 16 games, 82.2 innings, with 60 k’s, 6 wins, a 3.48 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.29. While his 2011 numbers were nowhere as good as his 2010 numbers, they were still pretty good. If he is able to pitch a full season with the numbers close to or better than last years, he should be a great late round pick up. Adam Wainwright is another high risk, high reward player. If you can pick him up in the middle or late rounds of the draft, he is definitely worth a spot. When healthy, Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in baseball. In his 4 years as a starter, he has lowered his ERA every year, from 3.7 to 3.2 to 2.63 to 2.42. His WHIP has also greatly gone down since his first season, from 1.40 to 1.05. He has also increased his strike out in each of those 4 seasons. If healthy, he can give you 200+ strike outs, an ERA of 2.5 or better, a WHIP below 1.2, and potentially win close to 20 games. He is a very high reward pitcher, but coming off of an elbow injury, we don’t know if he will be able to last the full season, and his innings might be limited and he could be shut down later in the season to preserve for the playoffs. This could be a huge problem for fantasy teams in their fantasy playoffs. But you need to make the playoffs first to worry about them, so as a mid-late or late round pick, he is definitely a must get. Broxton is another guy returning from injury, but his risk goes even farther than his injury. With Soria out due to his elbow injury, the Royals have 3 potential closers: Broxton, Crow and Holland. Any three of these guys could take the closer role, which makes all of them risky picks. Broxton had a horrible year last year, giving up 8 runs in 12.2 innings. This in itself is too small of a sample size to judge. He just didn’t seem to have it. I would personally stay away from all three of these guys until one of them takes the closer role.
On the hitters side we have two major forces returning: Buster Posey and Kendrys Morales. Posey is already in spring training and is having his work load increased to get ready for opening day. He is the less risky of the two, and so he will not fall as low in the draft. He is a great player and at catcher, can make a huge difference for your team. In 108 games in his first real year, he hit .304, with 18 homeruns, 67 RBIs, and 58 runs. For a catcher these numbers stretched out over a full season would be good production, but he did it in 2/3rds of a season. Last year before his injury, in 45 games, he hit .284, with 4 homeruns, 21 RBIs and 17 runs. This expanded over a full season would be around 17-18 homeruns, 92 RBIs, and 74 runs. If he can produce like this, he would be a worthy risk in the middle of the draft. Being able to get a catcher than can produce anything late in the draft is hard enough and if he falls due to the uncertainty with how he will respond to injury, he is a very worthy mid to late round pickup. Morales is a very risky pick. He was supposed to return last season from his broken leg, but missed the full season, and has missed close to 2 seasons because of it. He is a player capable of hitting over .300, hitting 30+ homeruns, knocking in over 10 RBIs and scoring 80+ runs. The problem is that, he still has only recently returned to playing. While he has looked good so far in spring training, spring training numbers are never to be trusted. Most pitchers struggle with their command, and hitters can capitalize on this, while hitters are also trying to regain their swing and form. His broken leg could cause a loss of power, which would mean lower numbers for him. If he falls late into the draft, you should take him. But considering he has missed almost 2 seasons, the risk will be very high.
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