While it is obvious that the Dodgers will not win 90% of their games, is it possible for the Dodgers to continue their hot streak and be playoff contenders? The NL West is one of the few divisions that does not have an outright candidate to win. The west has always been up for grabs and while Arizona asserted their dominance last year and won the division by 8 games over the Giants. However, they still only won 94 games, which was the lowest number of wins for any division winner in either league. They bolstered their pitching staff with Cahill, and have Trevor Bauer and other prospects in the minors ready to be called up, but their offense still has some holes. Chris Young has been hugely inconsistent and Goldschmidt, while a great prospect, is still an unknown. Hill has been on a downhill path and while he played well for Arizona after he was traded, it was a small sample size. Other players on their team follow in the same path, many are young and inexperienced. That being said, Arizona has a very good team, and I would call them the favorites to win the division. Even though many say the Giants are the favorites because of their pitching, I feel their lack of real offense is going to hurt them. Sandoval has been up and down and Posey is coming off of a long term injury. While adding Melky Cabrera was a good move, their offense just lacks the punch. Colorado has the offense but their starting pitching is horrible. Chachin could be a great pitcher, but they lack any real pitching depth behind him. Moyer is 49 years old, Nicasio and Pomeranz have very little experience and while Guthrie has had a sub 4 ERA in 3 of his last 5 seasons, it will have to be seen how he performs at the hitters paradise that is Coors Field. San Diego is just missing too many parts currently to be a contender. They have many great prospects in their ranks, but they are a team that is going to have to wait for the future to contend. With all that being said, aside from San Diego, I think any of the 4 other teams in the West can challenge for the division. They all have their holes, and as I had stated in a previous post about the Dodgers, they need a lot to go right for them to be contenders. But since I am a Dodger fan let’s talk about their first 10 games of the season.
Let’s look at their torrid start from a statistical point. After 10 games, the Dodgers are sitting at 9-1, with 50 runs scored and 33 runs allowed. This gives them averages of 5 runs scored per game and 3.3 runs allowed per game. If we go back to last year, the Dodgers averaged 4 runs per game and allowed 3.8 runs per game. The 2 years prior to that, 2009 and 2008 were the Dodgers pennant years. if we go back the last 4 years, the Dodgers have averaged 4.33 runs and allowed 3.96 runs per game. So it seems that the Dodgers offense and pitching are bound to regress a bit. I believe it will take 93-95 wins to win the division. If we look closely at their 2009 year the Dodgers won 95 games. In 2009 the Dodgers, on average, scored 4.8 runs and allowed 3.77 runs. If they can repeat these numbers they could win the West. There are a few difference between 2009 and now. On offense Manny was still playing at a high level, and while he was out, Juan Pierre played extremely well. James Loney was also playing well and had 90 RBIs that year. Ethier was on his way to 31 homeruns and 106 RBIs and Furcal played a full season, even though it was not up to his normal standards. Casey Blake was giving us production from 3rd base. And Russell Martin was giving the Dodgers production from the catcher spot. On the pitching side, Kuroda was still on the team and was pitching very well and the bullpen had a bunch of lockdown pitchers led by Broxton and Kuo. The advantage the Dodgers have now, this year, is that Kershaw is the reigning Cy Young award winner and has become one of the best pitchers in the game and Matt Kemp has become an MVP candidate, and is currently one of the best hitters in the game. The bullpen is still a lockdown with Guerra and Jansen leading them. The starting pitching staff has some holes, but if they pitch to their potentials, they should be fine. The problem comes in with the offense. James Loney has been regressing since his first year. Uribe is trying to bounce back from one of the worst seasons in Dodger history. A.J. Ellis is trying to bring us some production back, but in a completely different way through getting walks and getting on base. There are some pluses however. Dee Gordon can make things happen on base. He has stolen 7 bases in 8 tries and while he is struggling with the bat he is finding a way to be productive. Rivera is driving runs in. Between his time last year with the Dodgers and into this year, he has driven in 52 runs in 71 games. Ethier, while he struggled last year due to an injury, seems to be back to his old self again. The part of the current offense that scares me however, is the fact that Ethier and Kemp, between them, have driven in 31 of the Dodgers 50 runs. That is a ridiculous 51.6% of the total teams runs. This is not going to happen all season long. This will regress. Kemp and Ethier will not drive in 240+ runs each in one season. The Dodger offense is bound to regress. However, Urbie and Loney are bound to hit better than they have been so far. Their rise might be able to mitigate the regression in Kemp and Ethier. I do believe the Dodgers have the offense to challenge for a division title, but it will come down to how Uribe and Loney perform. Without them the team will struggle, with them, they have a good chance at the division.
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