Wednesday, April 11, 2012

MLB Closers

Like death and taxes, you can always expect the closer wagon to be in full swing at the start of baseball season. While this creates some excitement in the form of blown saves and come back wins, it creates havoc for fantasy owners. The biggest culprit is currently the Red Sox. When Andrew Bailey went down with an injury, most of us thought that Melancon would get the call, considering his previous experience saving games for the Astros. But surprisingly, Aceves was named the closer. In their first game, with the scores tied, Melancon came in during the 9th and proceeded to give up 2 hits to the Tigers while only getting one out. Aceves then followed him and hit the hit batter he faced and then proceeded to give up the game winning hit. During the second game, Aceves once again came up empty. With a 3 run lead, he allowed 3 hits to the Tigers in the 9th, one of which was the game tying 3 run homer by Miguel Cabrera.  All of this happened while getting no outs. Even worse, Melancon came in during the 11th with a 2 run lead, and blew it again, giving up 3 runs including a homerun to Alex Avila. So in all, Aceves faced 5 batters in the first 2 games, allowed 4 hits, one homerun and hit a batter and Melancon faced 9 batters, getting 2 outs, while allowing 5 hits, one home run and a sacrifice fly. Well then, who gets the closer role now? Aceves is still the closer and came in during their 4th game and proceeded to save their only win so far in this young season. Melancon hasn’t pitched since those first 2 games. If you are one of the managers who has Aceves, I wouldn’t worry just yet. It is early in the season and it sometimes takes relief pitchers a while to get their rhythm. And on the other side, there is no real threat behind him. While Padilla could take the spot, I don’t think they would jump on to him yet, considering he has very little experience coming out of the pen. And until the starting rotation comes back, Lackey and Miller are both currently on the DL, Daniel Bard is stuck in the starting rotation.
While the season is still young, Boston clearly has issues in their bullpen, but they are not alone in this. Toronto has had their own issues in the bullpen. Sergio Santos got his first save today, after blowing 2 previous saves. He gave up runs in back to back outings, which led to back to back blown saves. Santos was pretty good last season, saving 30 games with a 3.55 ERA and a very low WHIP at 1.11. While this could just be a pitcher needing to find his rhythm in the early season, the problem is that if he does struggle for an extended period of time, the Blue Jays have an experienced closer behind him who could take over. Francisco Cordero is coming off of a 37 save season, which followed a 40 save season. While he is getting old, and his K-rate has dropped, he is still capable of pitching at a very high level. However I do believe his numbers from last year were an anomaly, his WHIP of 1.02 was unusually below his career average of 1.33. 1.02 is the second lowest WHIP he has posted in his career, behind a 1.01 performance in his 4th season in 2002. His numbers do speak for themselves however, with multiple seasons of 30+ saves and a few 40+ save seasons. He is always a threat to take over the closer spot. I wouldn’t start to worry yet about Santos since he is young and thus should have a decent leash before they pull him.
Since relievers come out of the pen and pitch on short notice and have less time to really get their groove due to the short amount of time they actually pitch, they sometimes takes a while to get their rhythm back. I wouldn’t worry too much just yet, but I’d keep an eye out on the situations. In other closer news, it seems that Fernando Rodney has taken the closer spot for the Rays, unofficially of course. Officially it is still a closer by committee, but with 3 saves and a win in 5 games, he should be the one getting most of the save opportunities until Farnsworth comes back. Sean Marshall for the Reds, hasn’t had a chance to save any games yet, but has been perfect both times he has come in. He has 2 innings pitched and 3 k’s, while retiring all the batter he has faced. The opportunities will come, and it seems like he should be ready for the closer gig. If he’s still available consider picking him up. Javy Guerra has been great for the Dodgers so far. His pitches and command have both been very sharp. This season he has allowed only 1 hit, 1 walk in 3 innings of work, while allowing 0 runs and striking out 3. Many people think Jansen should be the closer because of his great K rate, Javy currently has the job and it is his to lose.

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